The Indian Meteorological Department today revised its monsoon forecast lower to 88 percent from earlier 90 percent, citing stronger El Nino conditions.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Jatin Singh chief executive officer, Skymet, says the private forecaster has no data to downgrade its monsoon forecast.
Infact he says June and July are expected to be good monsoon months and adds there will be no prolonged dry periods until atleast July 15.Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview to CNBC-TV18.
Q: We had this conversation just a couple of days ago and you said you are still sticking to the Skymet forecast of this being a normal monsoon. In light of what the IMD has today forecasted, are you changing your mind at all?
A: Not at all, we are sticking to 102 percent.
Q: You are still sticking to 102 percent despite what the IMD is saying that he El-Nino conditions have worsened, that they are now down to 88 percent, you are still saying 102 percent is what you anticipate?
A: Yes.
Q: How do you explain this divergence, I asked you this question on Thursday, I am asking this question again, in the context of this downward revision by the IMD.
A: I do think of this as a contest. Let this be differing academic opinion. As I said, one is the statistical way of looking it that you really don’t get back to back droughts. There have been three instances 2004-2005, 1985-86-87, 1965-66. 2014 was a drought. 88 percent I don’t know why the word deficient is being used as a perversion of statistic, it is actually a forecast for drought.
Second in a back to back El-Nino and this is an El-Nino that was established in September in the region 3.4 Central Pacific that we are more sensitive to. It has been there since September and it was there in June also but it kept on getting aborted. So you did not get one consecutive quarter. So, statistically that is also not supported.
Third, one story that I think you will start hearing in about a months time is that there is a Indian Ocean dipole and this is our theory that this looks like 1997 when the Indian Ocean was able to successfully insulate us from the El-Nino. So, these are the three points.
Q: So, those are the three points why you continue to maintain a 102 and not changing your forecast.
A: I have models and everything is still sticking. If I have enough data for whatever work and we have been talking for a couple of years, I would change. Last year we downgraded from 94 to 91 and then to a drought. But so far, and mind you, this is only the second day of June; second day of monsoon. This is a 120 day event. And right now I do not, maybe they do, but I do not have enough data or experience or nothing tells me I should downgrade this forecast, so far.
Q: You said that you believe that the Indian Ocean could actually insulate us. The Indian Met Department is saying that this is not anywhere close to what we saw in 1997 and hence the Indian Ocean phenomena that you were talking about is unlikely to come to our rescue. Also, suggesting that the second half of the El Nino is perhaps going to bear much worse situation for the monsoon forecast which is what the Met Department is going with. And, that seems to explain the divergence according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
A: We all need to sit this one out. If you look at any of the freely available forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), it says that it is warming. Now it is suppose to warm between June to August. It might quicken, it might not. We really do not know. It is true, even I am a convert and a new acolyte to the whole IOD, that I agree, but it seems in years like this, it might have an influence. And whatever technology we have, we see that June and July look okay. I can see as far as June 15 so far and those look okay. I do not see any prolonged dry periods. So, let us see. By July 15, we will know which way this is exactly going to swing but, as I said, you really need it to play out then we both learn a lot of things over the next four months.
Q: Okay, so you are seeing the El Nino impact in all the four months. Jatin Singh, I will let you have the final word because once again, a significant divergence of opinion there. You are saying you do not expect any significant hiatus or long dry spells up until the July 15, and you just heard what Mr Pai had to say.
A: As I said, we have to sit with this one out. I have a comment on the onset. You see in the classical sense, the anti-cyclone has to go, the winds have to change, but it is raining. I mean, it is how you look at it. It is raining in Delhi.
Q: I can vouch for the fact that it rained or it drizzled in Delhi.
A: It rained in Delhi and it rained Patna, it rained in Madhya Pradesh. It is raining in Chhattisgarh, Patna, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, now. And on day one, 89 percent of the daily, which actually does not mean anything. But the IMD might not declare a monsoon, but it is raining. And after June 1, you count everything that comes. And in between the 6th and 8th, there is another spell that is coming. Again, it might not technically establish the monsoon, but it is raining. I see it happening and it will happen, it is not too far away to see. So, that is my, I mean you might not characterise the technical onset but it is raining. That is the first point.
And second, I am actually 50 percent on is June slightly sluggish, it might be little bit. On a monthly scale, a 20 percent plus, minus is considered normal. June should be okay. Our forecast is between normal to above normal. So, let us see. The jury is out on this one and one of us will be right and one of us will be wrong.
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