India’s GDP growth is usually revised up from first advance estimate: MC Analysis

Similarly, while the first advance estimate indicated a 7.7 percent contraction owing to Covid, the final number reduced the magnitude of contraction to 5.8 percent.

Revisions are usually upwards as well.

Analysis shows that of the last eight years, six have witnessed an upward revision, with FY19 and FY20 standing as two exceptions.

In FY20, while the first advance estimate pegged growth a 6.5 percent, actual growth was much lower at 3.9 percent, whereas FY19’s final figure at 6.5 percent was 30 bps lower than first estimate of 6.8 percent.

But not everything is revised upwards.

Manufacturing has witnessed as many downward revisions as upwards over the last eight years.

The magnitudes of revisions has also been much higher, with growth varying 5 percentage points on average between the first and the last number.

In FY23, for instance, manufacturing growth was 3.8 percentage points lower in the first revised estimate compared with the first advance estimate. FY22’s final number was 2.5 percentage points lower. In the case of manufacturing, revisions post pandemic have usually been downward rather than upward.

However, finance, real estate and professional services seem to belie this trend. In this case, revisions have been upward post pandemic. In FY23, the numbers were revised upward by 2.7 percentage points.