MET predicts normal rains: What's making experts sceptical?

The first monsoon forecast is out and it is predicting a normal monsoon. But how reliable is the forecast and what are the chances it could go wrong? Beyond that, what does this mean for Indian agriculture, inflation and growth?

Speaking to CNBC-TV18's Karan Thapar, Ajit Tyagi, director general of Meteorological Department, said this year the forecast in quantitative terms is of 98%, which falls in the normal category. "We are confident within the model areas of plus/minus 5%. In extreme cases to be below normal category, which is between 90 and 96%