India's largest private sector company Reliance Industries will announce its earnings for the quarter ended December 2020 on January 22. The key focus would remain on its telecom and retail businesses, while the sequential performance is expected to be strong across segments.
The brokerages largely see average revenue per user (ARPU) at Rs 149 per month, while in old businesses, gross refining margin is likely at around $7 a barrel with improvement in the petchem margin QoQ.
"RIL is expected to report GRM at $7.0 a barrel, benefitting from a spike in ATF cracks during the quarter, while Arab LtHv spread shrinks marginally QoQ," said Motilal Oswal.
"Petchem margins improved QoQ with PE, PP, PVC delta up 25 percent, 27 percent, 52 percent respectively - thus likely to offset the continued pain from delay in recovery of refining margins," the brokerage added.
Kotak Institutional Equities also expects a sequential increase in the petchem segment EBITDA reflecting higher margins across key products and refining segment EBITDA driven by higher crude throughput (up 8 percent QoQ).
Motilal Oswal expects Jio's ARPU to improve by 3 percent QoQ to Rs 149 (the same may grow 16 percent YoY – owing to benefit from the price hike taken in December 2019), with subscribers at 41.5 crore (up 12 percent YoY, up 2 percent QoQ).
Kotak also sees the same ARPU for the December quarter 2020, while retail business growth could be Rs 720 crore QoQ led by a sequential rebound in revenues and margins.
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Reliance shares were down 11 percent during the quarter ended December 2020 but rallied 32 percent last calendar year.
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