Jet Airway likely to post net loss of Rs 198cr in Q1

Jet Airways is to announce its first quarter FY13 results. According to CNBC-TV18's estimates, the company's Q1 revenues are seen up 38% at Rs 4900 crore versus Rs 3541 crore, Year-on-Year, YoY.

Its EBITDA is seen down at Rs 195 crore versus Rs 121.4 crore, YoY.

Its OPM is seen at 4% versus 3.4%.

The company is likely to post net loss of Rs 198 crore versus net loss of Rs 123 crore (Adjusted net loss of Rs 241 crore)

(In Q1FY12, there was an Extraordinary one time income of 118.6cr on account of change in engine maintenance arrangement )

Quarter-on-Quarter standalone

Its revenues are seen up 21% at 4900 crore versus Rs 4041.6 crore, QoQ

Its EBITDA is seen up 54% at 195 crore versus Rs 126 crore, QoQ.

Its OPM seen at 4% versus 3%

The company's likely to post net loss of Rs 198 crore versus reported net loss of Rs 298 crore.

What to watch for :

* Losses to narrow this Q in line with aviation sector recovery , strong turnaround expected in FY13

* Revenues to grow 38 % YoY ( 21 % QoQ ) due to 16% YoY rise in passenger growth ( vs 23.5% last Q )

* Key thing to watch for is improvement in yields ,  have risen by 4.8% YoY  since domestic fares have risen    

* Pricing power has increased significantly, Jet took price increase of 12% in march

 * Load factor to remain healthy at 80% due to cut back in supply by KFA ( last Q , load factor strong at 83%)

* Market share expected to improve 270 bps to 28.2% ( including jet lite )

* Reduction in ATF prices by 5.5% QoQ to help lower fuel costs ( last Q fuel expenses up 42% YoY at 1822cr vs 1753.3cr)

* However, brent crude down 20% in past 2 mths from 124$/bbl to 100$/bbl , despite that ATF prices down only 5.5% due to depreciation in rupee

* However international segment not seeing enough improvement to break-even , lack of pricing power as competitoon with global players increase, higher other operating expense due to weak rupee