Yes, Davos is quieter than most years. Ofcourse, Davos sceptics are quick to say ‘I told you so – Davos is losing its charm’. Another one on my twitter timeline went “uh oh 5 days of the richie rich faking outrage about why the rest of us live in poverty.”
But it’s not the perceived hypocrisy, nor the lack of charm that makes it a non-event event this year. It’s the lack of a good, solid, blood in the eyes, vein popping financial crisis! Nothing to rally the troops about! No government bitching, no bank bashing, no too-big-to fail failures.
The mood is that awful cliché of ‘cautiously optimistic’. Most business leaders I have spoken to thus far are hopeful 2014 will be a year of stable recovery for the global economy. No sharp upmoves but no declines either.
Kotak Mahindra Bank,VC and MD Uday Kotak had a different take though. He said to me “When things are so calm in Davos it usually means a storm is brewing”. (Read full interview here)
WPP CEO Martin Sorrell looked at it differently when I interviewed him. He said the global economy is improving but business is not confident enough to start investing in growth.
So how long will that take?
The honest truth is nobody knows. The PWC Annual Global CEO Survey shows CEO confidence highest in Western Europe - but many economists I spoke too can’t say with certainty that it will be one way up for Europe. The growth estimates for USA differ based on who you speak to – though everyone agrees 2014 will be better than 2013.
What about China, you ask? George Soros says China could be problem No 1 in 2014, Sorrell says China will be opportunity No.1.
And finally- India? Yes, they are talking about India but only to gauge what the election outcome could be. There’s a heavyweight political delegation here from India – I counted six cabinet ministers on the list…but word has it Praful Patel has cancelled. Last year, when India was in the doldrums and foreign investment under threat, Anand Sharma was the lone representative. And the previous finance minister Pranab Mukherjee never ever came during his stint. So what six ministers are doing here in an election year is anybody’s guess!
Curiously many Davos regulars have given this year’s meeting a miss -Anand Mahindra, YC Deveshwar, Sajjan Jindal, Kumar Birla (not a regular though), Mukesh Ambani …Rahul Bajaj has broken a 30-year record and is missing in action this year.
So, yes – Davos is quieter this year than most – but that’s probably because business and political leaders know recovery is a long hard road to walk.
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