Natural gas futures rose to Rs 206.30 per mmBtu on February 25 as participants increased their long positions as seen by the open interest. Natural gas price had fallen 2.2 percent on February 24 on the NYMEX.
Natural gas traded in the green after a gap-down start in the afternoon session tracking positive global cues.
The commodity has been trading higher than 50, 100 and 200 days' moving averages but lower than 5 and 20 moving averages on a daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.42 which indicates neutral momentum in prices.
However, weighing on the price is forecast for warm weather in the first week of March that may reduce heating demand.
Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities said, “International natural gas futures have started weaker this Thursday morning and turn positive in the early afternoon in Asian trade. Technically, NYMEX Natural Gas could trade in a range of $2.60-$2.95 levels.”
“Technically, MCX March Natural gas took resistance near Rs 208 levels and ended on a negative note and further downside below the level could see prices test Rs 201-Rs 197 levels soon. The resistance is at Rs 208-Rs 211 levels”, Iyer noted.
MCX iCOMDEX Natural Gas Index was up 15.81 points or 0.59 percent to 2,716.61.
In the futures market, natural gas for March delivery touched an intraday high and low of Rs 206.90 and Rs 201.50 per mmBtu, respectively on MCX. So far in the current series, natural gas has touched a low of Rs 175 and a high of Rs 222.20.
Natural gas delivery for February gained Rs 1.30, or 0.63 percent, to Rs 206.30 per mmBtu at 14:41 hours IST with a business turnover of 11,087 lots.
Natural gas delivery for April jumped Rs 0.80, or 0.39 percent, to Rs 208.30 per mmBtu with a business volume of 2,040 lots.
The value of March and April’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,134.43 crore and Rs 34.89 crore, respectively.
Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited said, “Natural gas traded negative during the last trading day, expectations are for a 276 Bcf draw in inventories which reflects much colder than normal weather that plagued the mid-west and the south of the United States. Natural gas has support at Rs 200 levels below it may come down to Rs 192 levels while resistance is at Rs 205. Above this, it can go towards Rs 221 levels. ”
Natural gas may remain range-bound ahead of inventory report today, however, we may see some upside if the inventory report beats market expectations and registers a sharp withdrawal from stocks, said Kotak Securities.
At 09:17 (GMT), the natural gas price climbed 1.54 percent to quote at $2.83 per mmBtu in New York.
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