India’s once-booming Russian oil imports have begun to cool sharply after the United States sanctioned Moscow’s oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, according to provisional tanker data cited by The Indian Express.
The numbers tell the story: in the week ending October 27, crude oil exports from Russia to India averaged 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd), down steeply from 1.95 million bpd just two weeks earlier. The decline coincides with Washington’s new sanctions, which take full effect on November 21.
Refiners, wary of the secondary sanctions risk, are already reducing purchases from the two sanctioned firms that together account for more than half of Russia’s oil exports, and nearly two-thirds of India’s Russian oil intake.
Rosneft and Lukoil shipments plunge
Data from global commodity analytics firm Kpler, as reported by The Indian Express, show that Rosneft’s exports to India fell to 0.81 million bpd in the week ending October 27, down from 1.41 million bpd a week earlier.
Lukoil, the other Russian giant, recorded zero shipments to India that week, compared with 0.24 million bpd previously.
Given that tankers take about a month to reach Indian ports via the Suez Canal, the current slowdown reflects refiners winding down contracts before the US deadline.
Until then, oil deliveries will remain robust, as cargoes arriving through November were booked weeks before the sanctions announcement.
Why Indian refiners are treading carefully
Even as India politically opposes unilateral US sanctions, refiners and banks remain cautious due to their global financial exposure.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Washington’s sanctions watchdog, can impose secondary sanctions on non-US entities dealing with sanctioned firms.
That’s why Indian refiners like HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) have suspended Russian purchases, while Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has said it will comply with “internationally imposed sanctions.”
“No refiner except Nayara Energy (part-owned by Rosneft) is expected to import from sanctioned suppliers after November 21,”
said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, to The Indian Express.
“Flows may hold at 1.6–1.8 million bpd until then, but will taper as refiners avoid OFAC exposure.”
Sanctions ripple through the supply chain
The US move, seen as one of the Donald Trump administration’s toughest actions against Moscow since the war in Ukraine began, aims to pressure the Kremlin’s revenue lifelines.
For India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, it’s a tricky balancing act between cheap Russian crude and Western compliance risks.
In October, Russian oil still made up about 34 percent of India’s total crude imports, averaging 1.62 million bpd, slightly higher than September’s 1.61 million bpd. But the sharp dip in dispatches suggests a coming slowdown in December–January cargoes, as refiners rebuild supply chains and explore alternatives.
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