Buy Triveni Turbine; target of Rs 780: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Triveni Turbine

Triveni Turbine (TRIV)’s 3QFY25 results came in line with our expectations on all parameters. The company reported revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17%/31%/35% YoY in 3QFY25. Domestic order inflows declined by 16% YoY, as the conversion from inquiry generation to order finalization is yet to pan out. Export order growth moderated to 9% YoY. Management is optimistic about domestic order inflow pipeline materializing in 4QFY25, with healthy inquiries from distilleries, MSW, cement, steel, process co-generation, et al. TRIV is foraying into new products, applications and geographies in order to diversify its revenue stream and growth prospects. We cut our FY26/FY27 estimates by 2%/8% to factor in lower order inflows and revenues. We maintain BUY with a TP of INR780, based on 42x Mar’27E earnings.

Outlook

The stock is currently trading at 45x FY26E/36x FY27E P/E. We cut our FY26/FY27 estimates by 2%/8%, and maintain BUY with a TP of INR780 on 42x Mar’27E EPS. Key risks to our recommendation would come from slower-than-expected order inflow growth, particularly in domestic markets; lower-than-expected margins; and a slowdown in global geographies.