Buy TCI Express; target of Rs 900 : ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on TCI Express

TCI Express (TCIE)’s Q2FY26 EBITDA of INR 33.5mn was broadly in line with consensus estimates. Key points: 1) Volumes were largely stable at 248kte (250kte in Q2FY25). 2) EBITDA margin improved QoQ to 10.9% (vs. 9.8% in Q1FY26 and 11.8% in Q2FY25), mainly on account of 25bps price hike and cost stabilisation and optimisation. 3) Added 10 surface express branches and 25 rail network branches. 4) Capacity utilisation improved QoQ to 83.5% (82% in Q1FY26). 5) Incurred capex of INR 280mn; plans to incur additional capex of INR 1.5bn till FY27-end. Ahead, management guides for 1) 10% revenue growth, supported by volume growth of 8% and price hike of 200bps in FY26; and 2) EBITDA margin is likely to improve QoQ. Maintain BUY with a TP of INR 900, based on 28x FY27E EPS.

Outlook

We maintain BUY with a target price of INR 900/share (unchanged), based on an unchanged multiple of 28x FY27E EPS.