Nearly three decades later when Indian 2 arrived in cinemas, audiences expected Kamal Haasan to impress them again with his fight against corruption. Little did they know they were in for a story that was well past its expiry date.
While the 1996 Indian had set the stage with a blockbuster performance, its sequel has joined the list of disappointing movies of 2024, spilling trouble for the already dwindling box office business.
Indian 2, released on July 12, in its opening weekend pocketed Rs 60 crore in the box office in India and another Rs 40 crore in the overseas market where the movie's performance has not been up to the mark just like its home market. In India, the film's earnings started seeing a drop from day two of its release.
Film trade analysts noted that the negative word-of-mouth for the film led to a 29 percent drop from Rs 26 crore on opening day to Rs 18.50 crore on the second day. Its business fell further by 16 percent on day three to Rs 15.50 crore.
After Kalki, which brought in the much awaited respite to theatre owners, the exhibitors counted on another tentpole film, Indian 2, made on a budget of Rs 250 crore. However, star director Shankar did not live up to the expectation with the second part of the Indian franchise.
Blow to the box office
"It is a blow to the box office because (director) Shankar himself is a brand. New filmmakers look up to Shankar. However, Indian 2 is a washout. There was no buzz for the film. Indian was a landmark cinema, it was one of the earliest Tamil cinema which had addressed the topic of corruption. After that Shankar has made many such movies. But Indian 2 is offering the same story that people have watched over the years. Using the same formula is not working," said film trade analyst Atul Mohan.
Indian 2 was in the making for a long time, weak buzz and a low recall value for the franchise are some of the reasons that did not work in favour of the sequel, noted Vivek Menon of NV Capital.
"Given that it was a franchise film with Kamal Haasan and director Shankar at the helm and Haasan coming after his success in Vikram, the expectation was higher," he added.
Regional films have been a silver lining in the overall bleeding box office business. In the first six months of 2024, Malayalam cinema grossed more than its entire collections in 2023. The share of the industry is 15 percent, which is thrice of its share of 5 percent in the first half of 2023, according to an analysis by media consulting firm Ormax.
Slow business
On the other hand, Hindi cinema witnessed a reduction in its share of the India box office between January and June this year when compared to the same period last year, from 37 percent to 35 percent. This is a result of no films managing to break out significantly at the box office so far this year like Pathaan did in the first half of 2023.
"There will be a decline in Q1 FY25 and Hindi box office will be down by 35 percent year-on-year (YoY). The second quarter will see a decline of 45-50 percent because there are no films expected to do well. Kalki has done well but its partial impact came in Q1 and the remaining in Q2," said Karan Taurani, senior vice-president of Elara Capital.
In the first nine months of calendar year 2024, Hindi box office business is estimated to decline by 35 percent versus last year.
Little is expected from upcoming movies. "Stree 2 could see some respite but there also we expect Rs 100-120 crore from the box office. Nothing big is expected around a big holiday like Independence Day. Sarfira has been below par. Indian 2 numbers show that the audience has become very selective and they want to watch extravagant films like Kalki or sci-fi movies which are worth their time and money. So, the film business has been muted so far," Taurani said.
On a full year basis the decline could be arrested to 20 percent based on the performance of films like Pushpa 2, Singham 3 and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3," he added.
While Telugu films have managed to hold onto their box office share in the first six months, Tamil and Hollywood films lost share when compared to the same period last year, and Kannada films only had 1 percent share this year so far, Ormax analysis noted.
"Hindi (box office) decline will be sharper than overall box office decline. Hindi decline is estimated at 30-35 percent for the first nine months of 2024 while overall box office is estimated to be down by 25 percent this (calendar) year. Hindi and Hollywood have been the laggards so far while regional has had a decent run," Taurani said.
Some respite is expected to come in towards the end of 2024 with a strong lineup.
"Last year we saw a large slate of films doing well from Jawan, Pathaan to franchises like Gadar 2. After October, traction is likely to pick up and the OND (October, November, December) quarter will be some respite. There will also be large Hollywood films. January to July has been muted and the slowness in box office business will continue till September," Taurani said.
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