Odisha Lok Sabha Elections 2024: BJP-BJD reunion on the cards? How will it change poll math

Reports suggest that the alliance could be announced shortly. The talks gained momentum a couple of weeks ago but were put on the back burner over differences on how many seats each party would contest in the Assembly elections.

Pandian Proposes BJP-BJD Alliance

VK Pandian, a prominent figure in the BJD, on March 19 introduced a new perspective to discussions regarding an alliance between the regional party and the BJP. He emphasised that this alliance surpasses mere political considerations, instead underscoring the statesmanship of two great leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Patnaik.

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“There are some things beyond politics. The alliance has great significance as two great leaders want to come together for a greater cause,” Pandian, the second in command of the BJD, said while speaking at the Rising Bharat Summit organised in New Delhi by CNN News-18 on March 19.

BJP Mulls Alliance Talks

Reports citing BJP insiders mentioned that top leaders, including Odisha BJP in-charge Sunil Bansal, state unit president Manmohan Samal, and state leaders such as Baijayant Panda and Dharmendra Pradhan, held a meeting lasting at least four hours at the party office to discuss the alliance.

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Pandian's Remarks Fuel Speculation on Tie-up

Analysts interpret that Pandian's remarks have intensified speculation regarding the active pursuit of a potential alliance for both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in Odisha by both parties. Pandian's visit to Delhi earlier this month to confer with the party leadership has further fuelled these discussions. Despite the feasibility of the alliance, talks have remained inconclusive.

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Evolution of BJD's Electoral Journey

Since severing ties with the BJP in 2009 and contesting elections independently, the BJD has consistently secured a majority of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats. However, in the most recent parliamentary elections, the regional party couldn't replicate the successes of 2009 and 2014. Nonetheless, it sustained its winning streak in state elections.

BJD Aims for Majority Assembly Seats

In the current political landscape, it has been reported that the BJD seeks to contest more than 100 out of the total 147 Assembly seats. Additionally, there appears to be a general agreement that the BJP will contest around two-thirds of the Lok Sabha seats.

2019 LS Polls: BJD, BJP's Electoral Performance in Odisha

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJD secured 12 seats, while the BJP obtained 9 out of the total 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state. This was considered a significant gain for the saffron party, as it secured an additional four seats compared to the 2014 elections. In 2014, the BJD had won 20 seats, leaving only 1 for the BJP.

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NDA Strengthens with BJD Rejoining

The rejoining of the BJD to the NDA is expected to strengthen the coalition's pursuit of securing over 400+ seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. As of now, it appears that the two parties have come to an agreement. Reports indicate that the BJP will contest 14 Lok Sabha seats while the BJD will contest 7. Moreover, in the 147-member assembly, it is expected that the BJD will vie for 100 seats while the BJP will compete for 47.

BJD's Electoral Optimism Sans Alliance

Political observers suggest that the BJD retains optimism regarding its electoral prospects, even in the absence of an alliance with the BJP. This optimism is believed to be rooted in CM Patnaik's enduring popularity, which is bolstered by the announcement of numerous welfare schemes benefiting all segments of the population.

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The discussion of a potential alliance with the BJP appears to have positively influenced the ruling BJD party by helping to mitigate anti-incumbency sentiments. This suggests that the mere discussion or speculation of an alliance has played a role in shaping public perception and potentially boosting the ruling party's support among voters.

Resurgence of Alliance Talks: Recent Developments

The talks regarding the alliance between the two former partners commenced following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to refrain from criticising the BJD government during his recent visits to the state. Notably, the BJD has been consistently supporting the NDA government in Parliament on major issues over the past five years.

During a meeting in Sambalpur on February 3, Modi referred to CM Patnaik as his 'Mitra' (friend), and during another gathering in Chandikhole, Jajpur district, on March 5, which coincided with the birth anniversary of former chief minister late Biju Patnaik, Modi hailed Patnaik as a "popular Chief Minister." Additionally, Modi paid tribute to Biju Babu on the same occasion.

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Patnaik, present at both meetings, lauded the PM for charting a new course for the country towards becoming an economic powerhouse.

Congress Anticipates BJD-BJP Alliance Impact

The Congress party, meanwhile, appears to be increasingly concerned about the delay in receiving official confirmation regarding the alliance between the ruling BJD and BJP in the state. With the party lacking the necessary number of candidates for the 21 Lok Sabha and 147 assembly constituencies, it expects that some rebel aspirants from the BJD and BJP factions may defect to the Grand Old Party once the alliance is officially announced.