Just two weeks ago, Manohar Lal Khattar managed to weather a no-confidence motion launched by the opposition Congress party against his government. However, his decision to tender his resignation to the Governor, Bandaru Dattatreya, on March 12 wasn't solely prompted by the external challenge. Reports suggest that it was the internal discord within his own party, particularly among grassroots cadres, that played a significant role. The fissures within the BJP-JJP (Jannayak Janta Party) alliance further underscored this decision. More significantly, Khattar's proactive resignation, coming ahead of the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May, is viewed as a strategic move to pave the wave for a fresh leadership figure capable of steering the party through the forthcoming state Assembly polls slated for October 2024.
Saini's Swift Rise: BJP's Surprising Leadership Shift
Nayab Singh Saini's elevation to the role of Haryana's new chief minister came as a sudden and unexpected development, echoing the element of surprise reminiscent of the BJP's past decisions, such as when Khattar was appointed to the post in 2014. Saini, the incumbent Kurukshetra Lok Sabha MP, is a relatively low-profile leader within the political landscape, hailing from an OBC (Other Backward Class) background. His journey within the party ranks has been marked by steady advancement, culminating in his unanimous selection as the leader of the state BJP's legislative group during a meeting convened on March 12.
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In October, the BJP made the strategic decision to appoint Saini, as the new president of its Haryana unit, succeeding Om Prakash Dhankar. Saini's selection as the state BJP chief was seen as a calculated move by the party to consolidate its support among the OBC community and non-Jat segments of the population.
Winnability Reigns: Crucial Political Leadership Factor
Political analysts say the concept of ‘winnability’ holds significant importance in the selection process of a leader within any political party, charged with driving its agenda forward. Leaders are handpicked based on their perceived ability to secure victories in elections, thereby bolstering the chances of success for other party candidates. This emphasis on electability highlights the party's firm commitment to achieving its broader political objectives through careful and thorough leadership selection processes.
OBC-Dalit Alliance: Shielding BJP Amid Jat Discontent
The alliance between the OBC and Dalit factions holds the potential to shield the saffron party from any forthcoming repercussions stemming from discontent within the influential Jat community. The Jats wield considerable influence across 40 of the 90 assembly seats, particularly disappointed by the removal of Dhankhar from his role as the state unit president last October. The rift between Khattar and Dhankhar has only amplified tensions between the government and the party, underscoring the key role of the OBC-Dalit alliance in navigating these turbulent waters.
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BJP's Strategic Move to Address Anti-Incumbency
The Jat community, being the most populous in Haryana, is seen to have its support divided among various political entities, including the Congress, the JJP, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Amid these intricacies, the appointment of Saini as CM is widely interpreted as a strategic move aimed at mitigating the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment directed towards the Khattar administration.
Comprising nearly eight percent of Haryana's population, the Saini community holds sway, particularly in several northern districts such as Ambala, Kurukshetra, and Hisar. This demographic significance stresses the importance of Saini's elevation in addressing regional dynamics and fostering broader political unity within the state.
Khattar's Departure: Factors Shaping Saini's Succession
Experts opine that Khattar's decision to step aside and pave the way for Saini's succession appears to have been influenced by a multifaceted blend of factors, including internal party dynamics, strategic political calculations, and the overarching aim of nurturing wider political unity within the state. This significant transition in leadership is believed to have been shaped by a combination of these elements, marking a pivotal development in Haryana's political landscape.
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Khattar Eyes Karnal Lok Sabha Seat
Reports say Khattar remains in the good books of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's and is currently under consideration as a potential candidate for the Lok Sabha seat from Karnal. Similarly, Ashok Tanwar, the former president of the Haryana Congress who switched sides to the BJP shortly before the 2019 Assembly polls, is emerging as a contender for the Kurukshetra seat.
2014: BJP's Haryana Win under Khattar's Leadership
In 2014, the saffron party achieved a historic milestone by forming an independent government in Haryana for the first time. The appointment of Khattar as the CM, bypassing senior leaders such as Ram Bilas Sharma, Anil Vij, Capt Abhimanyu, and Dhankar, came as a surprise, particularly given his minority Punjabi support base in the state. Khattar, with strong ties to Modi and Amit Shah, who was then the BJP national president, brought a unique perspective to the role.
Political observers are of the view that during his tenure as the BJP's organisational secretary in Haryana, Khattar played a crucial role in forming alliances with key parties such as the late Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party and Om Prakash Chautala’s INDL. These strategic alliances played a major role in solidifying the BJP's position as a major political force in Haryana, ultimately leading to its independent emergence as a dominant player in the state's political arena.
Saini's Political Journey: From Khattar's Cabinet to Lok Sabha Victory
Saini served as a minister in the Khattar cabinet from 2014 to 2019, and despite being a legislator, he contested the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. The BJP secured victories on all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Over the past three decades, Saini has steadily climbed the ranks within the state BJP, holding positions such as district president and general secretary of the state BJP Kisan Morcha. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Saini defetaed his nearest rival, Congress' Nirmal Singh, in the Kurukshetra constituency by an impressive margin of 3,84,591 votes.
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Khattar's Tenure: Navigating Challenges Amid Resilience and Controversy
Throughout his tenure spanning over nine and a half years, Khattar faced numerous challenges, particularly significant law-and-order issues. These included the Jat reservation agitation in 2016, which claimed 30 lives, clashes between security forces and followers of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Ram Rahim after his conviction on rape charges by a CBI court in Panchkula in 2017, where reportedly over 40 individuals lost their lives, the arrest of religious leader Rampal in 2018, the farmers' protest of 2020-21, communal violence in Nuh in 2023, and the ongoing farmers' protest. Despite these formidable hurdles , Khattar demonstrated resilience and adeptly navigated through them with the backing of the BJP leadership.
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