The pressing question in Odisha's political circles, resonating across the nation, revolves around the likelihood of an alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) for the forthcoming simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Despite their prior coalition from 1998 to 2009, senior leaders from both camps are currently refraining from commenting on the potential partnership. Speculation has surged notably after the BJD's backing of Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw's candidacy in the recent Rajya Sabha elections, highlighting the BJP's hurdles in securing his election due to numerical constraints.
BJP-BJD Alliance Prospects Gain Momentum
More significantly, the possibility of a BJP-BJD alliance gained significant momentum on March 5 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik as a "popular CM," while Patnaik praised Modi for "transforming India into an economic powerhouse." This marks the second instance within a month where the two leaders publicly displayed camaraderie. During PM Modi's visit to Chandikhole in Jajpur district, where he inaugurated or laid the foundation for projects worth nearly Rs 20,000 crore, he also paid tribute to the legacy of Naveen's late father, the legendary leader Biju Patnaik, after whom the BJD is named. The party has traditionally capitalised on Biju's legacy to garner success in elections.
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Modi-Naveen Rapport: Boosting Alliance Chances
Notably, the rapport between Modi and Naveen Patnaik remains cordial, with the PM notably refraining from any criticism towards the Odisha CM. This amicable relationship was evident on February 3, despite PM Modi's hectic schedule inaugurating the permanent campus of IIM, Sambalpur. Naveen promptly joined him at the event, showcasing their camaraderie. During the occasion, Modi addressed Naveen as his "param mitra" (ultimate friend).
Post-Poll Pact Likely
Political analysts suggest that even in the absence of a pre-election alliance, a post-poll pact between the BJP and the BJD seems probable. They emphasise that this speculation carries weight, and there should be little doubt about its likelihood.
Friendship Spirit Sets Stage for Electoral Arrangement Talks
Tuesday's (March 5) event was marked by a spirit of camaraderie, occurring just days before the much-anticipated announcement of dates for Lok Sabha and assembly elections in several states, including Odisha. Reports indicate that discussions were underway to finalise an electoral arrangement that could potentially result in the BJP contesting the majority of Lok Sabha seats, while granting the BJD the opportunity to field its candidates in a significant number of assembly constituencies.
Moreover, the omission of Odisha from the BJP's preliminary list of 195 candidates for Lok Sabha seats,, coupled with the BJD's abstention from announcing any candidates, has intensified speculation. These occurrences have contributed to ongoing conjecture. Political observers say the two former partners have operated within an implicit alliance since Modi assumed office in 2014.
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High-Level Meetings Fuel Speculation
According to a report in the Times of India, PM’s principal secretary PK Mishra was in Odisha from February 29 to March 2, while Naveen's close associate, VK Pandian, visited Delhi on March 3. Citing sources, the report mentioned that these visits from both sides were related to ongoing negotiations.
Moneycontrol could not verify the report independently.
BJD Members Defecting to BJP
Experts argue that Modi’s recent visit has fuelled speculation about a possible alliance. However, state leaders from both the BJP and the BJD have dismissed the prospect of such an alliance, reassuring their supporters that they will contest the elections independently. In recent weeks, several BJD leaders, including sitting MLAs, have defected to the BJP. Notably, sitting BJD MLA and former minister Premananda Nayak joined the saffron party on March 4.
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Naveen's Cordial Relations with Central BJP Leaders
Despite the BJD and the BJP being in a coalition government for nine years starting from 2000, the alliance dissolved prior to the 2009 general elections, prompting the two parties to contest independently. Despite the BJP serving as the principal opposition party in Odisha, Naveen has maintained notably cordial relations with key figures within the central BJP, particularly PM Modi. Moreover, the BJD has consistently backed the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government on crucial issues within Parliament.
Past Cooperation: Fanning Speculation of a Tie-up
There was a buzz in the corridors of power regarding a potential alliance between the two parties, fueled by instances where the BJD supported the BJP. Notably, this included backing the BJP during the Opposition's no-confidence motion in Parliament in August, as well as supporting the Delhi services bill, which involves establishing an authority for the transfer and posting of Group-A officers in the national capital. Local dailies reported that out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP would contest 14, leaving the remaining seven for the BJD. Similarly, in the 147 Assembly seats, it was speculated that the BJD would field candidates in 106 seats, while the BJP would contest in 41 seats.
Signs of Mutual Admiration
In September last year, Naveen rated PM Modi's performance at 8 out of 10. Additionally, during his visit to Odisha in August, Union Home Minister Amit Shah praised Naveen Patnaik as "popular" and lauded him for being elected as CM five times consecutively. Shah also commended the CM and the BJD government for their efforts in reducing Naxal violence and diminishing Maoist influence in the state. Analysts opine that if the alliance does not materialise, it will likely result in a friendly contest between the two parties.
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