As the drumbeats of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections grow louder in Kerala, the excitement and anticipation in the air are palpable. The political climate is increasingly charged with high stakes as major parties vie for the influential minority vote. With its politically savvy electorate and high voter turnout, Kerala sees the minority communities - primarily Christians and Muslims, who together constitute nearly 45% of the population - as not just voters but as pivotal in shaping the election outcomes. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPM], the Congress, and the increasingly assertive BJP are each deploying strategic efforts to woo these groups, recognising their significant role in the democratic process.
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In some areas of Kerala, such as Malabar, constituencies like Malappuram with a Muslim population of 68%, and southern districts like Idukki and Pathanamthitta with a significant Christian population, the fight to secure minority votes is not only intense but also a strategic game. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections demonstrated the power of these demographics, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) winning 19 out of the 20 seats, primarily supported by minority consolidation around their candidates, particularly in light of Rahul Gandhi's candidacy from Wayanad. According to a post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti CSDS, the UDF obtained 65% of Muslim and 70% of Christian votes in 2019, indicating the strategic efforts of the political parties to secure these crucial votes.
In response to the 2019 electoral losses, the CPM, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has re-evaluated its minority outreach. Vijayan's unwavering stance against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and his commitment to supporting minority communities were highlighted in his public statements and actions, such as the withdrawal of cases against anti-CAA protesters. "Our fight against the CAA is unyielding, and we stand firmly with our minority brothers and sisters," Vijayan declared at a rally.
The Congress faces challenges from defections and accusations of being too close to BJP strategies. As a result, it has positioned itself as a staunch defender of secular values. VD Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition, criticised the CPM and the BJP for undermining these principles through their actions and rhetoric. He proclaimed that the Congress is the proper custodian of secular values in Kerala, underscoring its unwavering commitment to minority rights and its importance in the political landscape.
Meanwhile, the BJP is trying to reshape its image and electoral appeal in Kerala by directly engaging with Christian leaders and positioning Christian candidates in strategic constituencies. The party's state leaders argue that the traditional political powers have taken minority communities for granted. A BJP state leader remarked, "The minorities have been taken for granted by both the LDF and UDF. It's time for change," signalling a new direction in their campaign strategy.
The BJP is capitalising on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's pro-development and welfare policies through their 'Modiyude guarantee' campaign in an attempt to tap into the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala. Modi's frequent visits to the state highlight the party's strategic focus on making political gains in the southern region. However, the Latin church in Kerala has raised concerns after experiencing a freeze on its bank account due to protests against the Adani port project.
Despite some traditional Congress and CPM supporters considering alternatives, the BJP and Sangh Parivar's initiatives, such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, the push for a Uniform Civil Code, and attempts to establish historical Hindu connections to mosques, have faced resistance. This resistance is based on Kerala's secular ethos that goes beyond religious boundaries.
The BJP's efforts to reach out to the Christian voting bloc, which makes up over 18% of Kerala's population, have also faced challenges. Church leaders have expressed concerns about actions threatening communal harmony and restricting foreign donations to church-affiliated charitable organisations.
The Muslim community, which makes up approximately 27% of the state's population, views the central government's policies with scepticism. Modi's controversial speech in Rajasthan has only worsened the disconnect between Kerala's Muslim voters and the BJP. Leading figures from the Congress and Communist Party of India (Marxist), including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, have openly criticised Modi, reflecting widespread disapproval.
Given these dynamics, the possibility of a significant consolidation of minority votes and other anti-BJP segments in Kerala appears likely. There are also whispers of potential undercurrents between the Congress and the CPM aimed at a common goal of defeating the BJP in the state.
The sentiments within the minority communities mix hope with concern. Fr Antony Vadakkekara, a representative of the Syro-Malabar Church, voiced the need for a conscientious vote: "We urge our community to vote conscientiously, considering the crucial issues like human-animal conflicts and the rubber price fall that affect our lives directly." Similarly, a leader from the Samastha Kerala Jamiat-ul-Ulema emphasised that their support is conditional on respect and beneficial policies: "Our support is not unconditional; it is earned by respect and policies that protect our community's interests."
The pursuit of minority votes has intensified in Kerala, with both the UDF and Left Democratic Front (LDF) emphasising their opposition to the BJP's agendas, which they label "communal and fascist." The LDF, in particular, is trying to capitalise on its anti-CAA stance and the goodwill it fostered in the 2021 assembly elections, which made significant gains among minority voters, enhancing trust and support. The Congress, contending with its image and internal cohesion, argues that it remains the most credible opposition to the BJP's national policies.
In addition to electoral campaigns, community leaders have raised issues such as the challenges faced by farmers, human-animal conflicts, the economic downturn affecting rubber prices, and policies towards public service appointments. These issues are pivotal in shaping voter sentiment.
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