BJP vs Congress: Mysore witnesses fierce tug-of-war

Mysore is witnessing a fierce tug-of-war between the Congress and the BJP. Unlike urban constituencies in Bengaluru, here, the Congress has tasted electoral success at the Lok Sabha level. Between 1952 and 1996, the Congress held this seat. In 1998, the BJP's CH Vijayshankar defeated the Chikkamadu of the Congress and HD Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal. Since then, the seat alternated between the Congress and BJP until 2014. After 2014, BJP has slowly edged ahead of the Congress, with Pratap Simha winning the seat two consecutive times. This time around, the BJP has taken the call to drop the sitting MP.

Instead, they have nominated Yaduveer Wadiyar, a member of the erstwhile Mysore royal family. With a fresh face, can the BJP recreate the success of 2014 and 2019? Or will the Congress, with its careful caste calculations, dethrone the BJP?

There are three factors that will ultimately decide the final outcome in Mysore. First, crucial element is the caste calculations. Mysore, is in the heart of the Vokkaliga heartland. The sitting MP from the BJP, Pratap Simha is a Vokkaliga. In 2019, this caste factor was an important element in the BJP's success. This time, not only has BJP dropped Pratap Simha, but they have nominated a candidate belonging to the Mysore royal family. The Congress candidate, L. Lakshman is a Vokkaliga. Despite his relatively low profile, he is someone who has done significant work on the ground. The Congress has also not hesitated from playing the Vokkaliga card. At an election rally following his nomination, Lakshman described himself as a 'common man' belonging to a farming family. He went on to highlight that the Congress has given tickets to as many as eight Vokkaliga candidates in the 2023 Assembly elections. Siddharamaiah himself has campaigned extensively in the region trying to mobilize Vokkaliga voters behind the Congress. If the Congress manages to consolidate Vokkaliga votes, it could prove to be a major challenge for the BJP.

Secondly, one will need to keep a close eye on the dynamics of the BJP-JDS alliance. Since 1991, the Mysore seat has witnessed a three-way contest between the BJP, Congress and JDS (Janta Dal, before the split). The party finishing third generally had a vote share of above 20%, which is very significant. In 2019, the JDS-Congress alliance made it a bi-polar fight. The JDS and Congress had hoped that the basic logic of alliance arithmetic would help them defeat the BJP. Ultimately, the results proved that arithmetic is very different from chemistry. Rather than the alliance increasing the Congress' vote share, it was the BJP which managed to increase it vote share from 43% to 52%. In 2014, the BJP had won the seat by a margin of around 3%. In 2019, with the Congress-JDS alliance, the BJP increased this gap to around 10%. The JDS' 11% vote share, instead of going to the Congress, went to the BJP.