Battle for Mandya: Kumaraswamy faces acid test in a heavyweight clash

Kumaraswamy has been in politics for a long time and profoundly connects with Mandya's people and land. Gowda is a political newcomer and has recently emerged on the political scene. He is promoting his campaign with the slogan "I am the son of Mandya" to emphasise his local identity.

The Mandya seat was won in 2019 by an Independent candidate, Sumalatha Ambareesh, whom the BJP indirectly supported. She recently joined the BJP but has decided not to contest the election. Her absence from the fray has created a direct contest between Kumaraswamy and Gowda. However, the BJP is still allied with JD(S) in a strategic seat-sharing agreement, with their focus on other constituencies like Kolar and Hassan.

The Mandya Lok Sabha constituency comprises eight assembly segments. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress party won six seats: Maddur, Mandya, Nagamangala, Srirangapatna, Malavalli, and K.R. Nagar. This reflects a strategic consolidation of the votes of Vokkaliga and other backward communities. The JD (S) party secured the KR Pet seat, represented by H.T. Manju, while the Sarvodaya Karnataka Party, backed by Congress, won Melkote through Darshan Puttannaiah.

The NDA allies in Mandya are primarily concerned with the robust guarantees that Congress has promised and the potential consolidation of non-Vokkaliga votes, including Dalits, OBCs, and minorities, in favour of Congress. This could result in a loss of votes for the BJP and JD (S), who have formed a pre-election alliance to leverage their respective vote banks, Lingayats for the BJP and Vokkaligas for the JD (S), to counteract the Congress. The critical question remains whether Congress can maintain its recent electoral success or whether the JD (S) will manage to regain its lost ground.

In Mandya, almost 90% of the population is involved in agriculture, and the Cauvery River is a crucial resource. Therefore, issues related to water sharing with downstream states are significant and go beyond typical political and caste divisions. Amid a severe drought, Kumaraswamy positions himself and the JD (S) as firm protectors of the farmers' interests, facing significant challenges due to crop losses in this election year.

The voters in Mandya have different views on the candidates. One voter from Nagamangala said, "Kumaraswamy was CM twice. We know him. We have only heard about the Congress candidate for the last few months, even though he claims to belong to Mandya." This shows the deep-rooted recognition and trust in Kumaraswamy compared to the newness and unfamiliarity with Gowda.

Gowda's campaign counters this by emphasising his local roots and attempting to label Kumaraswamy as an outsider, given his political activities primarily in Hassan and Ramanagara. Gowda's assertive declaration, "I am the son of Mandya," is crafted to resonate with local voters' identity.

This election is pivotal for JD(S) as it seeks to reaffirm its status as the leading choice for Vokkaligas and farmers in Mandya. The outcome will significantly impact JD (S)'s political trajectory and position in Karnataka's broader political context. For Congress, maintaining the momentum from the 2023 Assembly victories is crucial, especially with its leaders like CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM Shivakumar actively engaging in the campaign, emphasising their community credentials and the party's governance record.