The third phase of elections in Uttar Pradesh witnessed a turnout of 57.34% across 10 constituencies, marking a decrease of 3.92% compared to the 2019 elections. Historically, lower voter participation has often signaled challenges for the ruling party. However, analysts present a nuanced perspective on this trend.
“It is difficult to read voters’ minds if the turnout is low. The thumb rule is if the voting percentage is low by up to 5% we perceive people do not want change and there is lack of inertia. In that scenario local issues play an important role resulting in sometimes astounding results. Kuch bhi ho sakta hai (anything can happen),” Nomita P Kumar of Giri Institute of Development Studies said.
Contrary to conventional wisdom Rajesh N Bajpai, a political analyst, while quoting a SBI Research article, said that voting percentage does not present a clear picture. “We are talking about low voting percentage whereas SBI research has claimed that over 8 lakh more people have used their right of franchise in first two phases of election as compared to 2019.,” he said
In 2009, the voter turnout stood at 49.09%, with BJP clinching only two seats, Aonla and Agra. SP won three seats, BSP two, Congress one, RLD one, and an independent candidate emerged victorious in one seat.
The tide turned drastically in 2014 with the advent of the Modi wave, witnessing an 11.76% surge in voter turnout to 60.85%. BJP won seven out of the ten seats, capitalizing on the increased participation. Similarly, in 2019, despite a marginal uptick of 0.41% in voter turnout, BJP managed to secure an additional seat compared to 2014, capturing eight seats. Notably, the SP-BSP alliance failed to make significant inroads, with SP winning only Mainpuri and BSP clinching Sambhal.
Phase-wise, the second phase saw a turnout of 54.85%, a decrease of 8.83% compared to 2019, while the first phase witnessed an 8.61% drop, registering a 60.25% turnout.
Commenting on the recent figures, experts attribute the decline to various factors, including scorching temperatures and decreased mobilization efforts. They suggest that BJP faces stiff competition from the Indi alliance.
“Signals are confusing. Anything can happen. The result will depend on the mobilisation capability of the organisation. The political party which can mobilise its voters and bring them to polling booths, will emerge victorious,” said Rajendra Kumar, a senior journalist of Rohilkhand area.
In Agra, which recorded the lowest turnout at 53.99%, concerns arise for BJP as voting decreased by 7.71% compared to 2019. The re-nomination of SP Singh Baghel, the incumbent MP, failed to mobilize voters adequately, potentially impacting the outcome.
Conversely, Sambhal witnessed the highest turnout at 62.81%, albeit a 5% drop from 2019. The tragic demise of SP candidate Shafiqur Rahman Burke paved the way for his grandson's candidacy, garnering sympathy votes. BJP's incumbent candidate, Parmeshwar Lal Saini, faces a formidable challenge.
In Badaun, a 5% increase in turnout compared to 2019 raises the stakes for BJP, which won the seat in the previous election. However, historical data suggests that higher turnouts often favor SP.
Bareilly's voting trends reveal BJP's dominance during elections with higher turnouts, a pattern observed since 2014. Despite a 3% decrease in turnout compared to 2019, BJP remains confident in its new candidate.
Aonla, a BJP stronghold, witnessed a 3% drop in turnout. With the incumbent candidate fielded again, experts predict a favorable outcome for BJP despite SP and BSP's presence.
Hathras' voting dynamics have shifted over the years, with higher turnouts favoring BJP since 2014. The 9% decrease in turnout poses a challenge, hinting at a closely contested battle.
Fatehpur Sikri, with a 5.2% decrease in turnout, reflects BJP's stronghold since 2014. However, the dip could impact the margin of victory or defeat.
Mainpuri's voting trends have remained consistent, with Mulayam Singh Yadav's dominance. However, the change in turnout may affect the margin rather than the outcome.
Etah's decrease in turnout by 4% opens up the possibility of a competitive race despite BJP's previous victories.
Firozabad, witnessing a 5% drop in turnout, presents another battleground seat, reminiscent of the close contests seen in previous elections. Ram Gopal Yadav’s son Akshay Yadav is in fray from here.
“These shifting voter dynamics set the stage for a closely watched battle in Uttar Pradesh, where every percentage point could sway the final outcome,” Kumar said.
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