North East Delhi: Can Cong pick Kanhaiya Kumar dethrone BJP's Manoj Tiwari in high profile contest?

Kumar was a member of the Communist Party of India’s (CPI) student organisation, the All India Students Federation (AISF). In 2019, the Left nominated him their candidate from his home district of Begusarai in Bihar, which is also a Lok Sabha seat with the same name. In a high-profile face-off, Kumar lost by over 4.2 lakh votes to BJP’s Giriraj Singh.

Following some differences with his comrades, Kumar subsequently joined the Congress which put him in charge of its students’ body. It is said that when his name came up during the party’s election committee meeting, Rahul Gandhi supported him promptly. The choice is being seen as a reflection of Gandhi’s aim at forming a “winning combination” comprising its old and new guards.

The grand old party is depending heavily on the 37-year-old politician to claw back into some relevance in the National Capital. There are indications that Kumar may be entrusted with significant responsibilities in the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee in the run-up to assembly polls next year.

Also read: Congress fields ex-JNUSU prez Kanhaiya Kumar from North East Delhi

Some BJP workers at the constituency, however, said his entry is working in their favour. Calling him 'still a Left-liberal', they termed him a member of the 'tukde-tukde' gang – a dysphemism coined for JNU student leaders during the 2016 incident. They felt that his name would polarize voters in these areas that witnessed riots in 2020 and that will benefit their candidate. They also brushed away the threat from Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) coming together this time. In 2019, Congress candidate and once a popular name in Delhi, Sheila Dikshit lost by well over 3.6 lakh votes where AAP candidate Dilip Pandey could not garner even a mandate of 2 lakh.

In fact, this alliance is said to have led to the exit of few Delhi Congress leaders, including state unit president, Arvinder Singh Lovely. He claimed that he had never been in favour of the Congress entering into an election alliance with the AAP in Delhi and expressed displeasure over 'outsider' candidates the Congress has fielded in the capital. His contention was against erstwhile BJP MP Udit Raj and Kumar.

Incidentally, Lovely was said to have been considered for this seat. In 2019, he lost to BJP’s Gautam Gambhir by over 3.9 lakh votes from the East Delhi constituency.

Also read: Why Manoj Tiwari was retained in BJP's Delhi list

Meanwhile, responsibility weighs heavy on the shoulders of the BJP candidate. Tiwari is the lone candidate to be renominated in the National Capital Territory of Delhi despite his party winning all the seven seats in 2019. The 53-year-old holds an M.P.Ed. degree from Banaras Hindu University. He has developed an equation with the electorate here and makes it a point to meet as many as possible given the strenuous poll-preparation schedule. When requested, he obliges, rendering a line or two from his popular Bhojpuri songs. The BJP would also look at him as a major player in Delhi’s assembly polls next year, especially to consolidate Poorvanchali migrant votes.

The choice of the candidates stems from the fact that this constituency has a significant presence of voters who have migrated from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand. Referred as Poorvanchali, they are said to constitute over 30% of the 23,81,442 (as of January 22, 2024) voters registered here.

There are few agricultural lands within this constituency, besides some industries. Out of the 10 assembly constituencies that comprise this Lok Sabha seat, the BJP was able to annex only three in 2020.

After delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, the first election here was won by Congress candidate Jai Prakash Agarwal in 2009. In the next election, however, he slipped behind the BJP and AAP contenders.

The die has been cast for May 25 in the penultimate round of a seven-phase election and the winner will be known on June 4. Till then, it’s battleground Delhi.