The year was 2005. The Manmohan Singh-led UPA government was a few months into its term and as he put together his cabinet, Singh chose Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad, a close ally of the Congress, as the railways minister, a position that many say was being eyed by Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) founder Ram Vilas Paswan.
Paswan pulled out of the alliance with Prasad’s RJD in Bihar but stayed on with the UPA as the minister of chemicals and fertilisers as well as steel.
The pullout was timed with Bihar assembly elections that were held in February of that year, with the LJP fielding 178 candidates. The LJP won 29 seats, RJD 75, JD (U) 55 and BJP 37 in the 243-member assembly. Bihar had voted a fractured House and President’s Rule followed.
In the fresh elections held in October-November 2005, the Janata Dal (United) bagged 88 seats and the BJP 55. Paswan’s LJP could win only 10 seats of the 203 it contested but it managed to split votes into several other constituencies, ending 15 years of Lalu-Rabri rule in Bihar.
The RJD-Congress combined was reduced to 63 seats (54+9). JD (U) chief Nitish Kumar sworn in as the chief minister of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Bihar, with the BJP and LJP as the junior partners.
Cut to 2020 and it's 2005 all over again. Paswan’s son Chirag has pulled the LJP out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as Bihar votes for a new assembly, beginning October 28. The LJP, however, will remain a part of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre.
Chirag has said his party will not field candidates against the BJP but has been unrelenting in his attacks against chief minister Kumar and his JD-U.
The 37-year-old LJP chief, who also tried his luck in Bollywood, has gone by his father’s playbook but it remains to be seen if he can swing the elections as the senior Paswan did in 2005.
A gamble or a calculated risk?
In an open letter on October 5, Chirag urged people not to vote for the JD (U), saying the next government would be a BJP-LJP coalition. The winning LJP MLAs would work under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he said.
“The LJP and JDU have many ideological differences… The Bihar First Bihari First document has been prepared after suggestions from four lakh people. I am happy that the party has decided to fight the JD(U) based on your suggestions. The decision has been taken not to rule Bihar but to take pride in it,” Chirag wrote.
Voting has been staggered over three phases and counting will be held on November 10. Leading the NDA charge in the state, Kumar along with the BJP is aiming to retain power. The ruling coalition is being challenged by the Grand Alliance of the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD, the Congress and other smaller parties. Tejashwi Yadav is the younger son of Lalu Prasad.
With the LJP deciding to go solo, political equations are set to change in Bihar.
In 2015, the JD (U) won 71 seats but as part of the Grand Alliance, with the RJD and the Congress among its partners. The BJP got 53 and the LJP only two of the 42 it contested, securing a vote share of 4.8 percent. The two parties had to sit in opposition until Kumar broke away from the Grand Alliance to go back to the NDA.
The LJP has been at odds with Kumar over several issues, including his recent decision to join hands with former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, who is a rival for Dalit support in the state. Dalits account for 16 percent of Bihar’s voters.
According to sources, the JD (U) and the BJP have arrived at a seat-sharing formula. The JD (U) will contest 122 seats and the BJP 121. Five seats from JD (U)’s kitty will go to Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha. The BJP will give some seats to Mukesh Nishad's Vikassheel Insaan Party, sources said.
The Grand Alliance will project RJD leader Tejashwi, Kumar’s former deputy, as the CM face. The RJD is to contest 144 seats, the Congress 70, the Communist Party of India (M-L) 19, CPI six and the CPI-M four seats.
Chirag is keeping his options open, analysts say. He is ambitious and also wants to come out of his father’s shadow to emerge as a mass leader, they say. Senior Paswan recently underwent heart surgery and could need another procedure in a few weeks.
“If LJP performs well in the elections, he might as well bargain with NDA in Bihar or he might go with the maha gatbandhan, the Grand Alliance,” NK Choudhary, a political analyst and a former head of the economics department at Patna University told Moneycontrol.
The decision would also help LJP expand its footprint in Bihar, he said.
“You do not always need a majority to become CM. Remember, Madhu Koda who became Jharkhand’s CM despite being an independent legislator or HD Kumaraswamy in Karnataka and Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra,” Choudhary said.
The assembly elections are a big test for the LJP and he wants to expand the party in Bihar and beyond, Chirag has said.
“If I had to choose the easier path, I would have joined the gatbandhan but I choose the difficult path to give Bihar its due and bring back the state’s lost pride,” Chirag told news agency ANI.
Some analysts, however, take a different view. They think the solo move is aimed at helping BJP emerge as the bigger partner and cut Nitish Kumar to size. The LJP did it to Lalu Prasad in 2005.
“What if the BJP emerges as the single-largest party. That way JD(U) and Nitish Kumar can be managed,” said a BJP party leader who did not want to be named.
Founded by Ram Vilas Paswan in 2000 after a split with the Janata Dal on the issue of joining the NDA, the LJP could never win enough seats to rule on its own in Bihar. But, it has tasted power and made its presence felt by stitching as well as undoing alliances.
As the party undergoes a generational shift, November 10 will tell us if Chirag will light up Bihar’s political scene.
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