Why Trump’s absence from APEC matters for U.S. influence in Asia

Trump celebrated his meeting with Xi in South Korea as a “G2,” highlighting the dominance of the world’s two largest economies while downplaying the importance of collective forums such as the Group of Seven or G20.

Yet, while Trump flew home, Xi stayed on. The Chinese leader is scheduled to remain in South Korea until the APEC forum concludes this weekend, underscoring China’s determination to project steadiness and engagement — qualities Trump appears increasingly reluctant to demonstrate in multilateral settings.

Showing up matters in Asian diplomacy. Trump’s absence gives Beijing an opportunity to expand its influence among regional leaders eager to fill the vacuum left by Washington.

During his earlier stop in Malaysia for the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting, Trump sought to reassure allies, saying he remained “on a mission of friendship and goodwill, and to deepen our ties of commerce, to strengthen our common security and really to promote strongly stability, prosperity and peace.”

Still, some analysts see no cohesive Asia strategy behind his words.

“He does not appear to want his hands tied by a disciplined, coherent strategy,” said Michael Green, who served on former President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now heads the United States Studies Centre in Sydney.

Go Myong-hyun, an analyst at South Korea’s Institute of National Security Strategy, said Trump’s personalised approach could weaken Washington’s leadership in the region.

“Of course, the United States’ reputation will worsen compared to the idealistic internationalism the rest of the world had long associated with America,” Go said. “But it’s too early to say for sure whether the United States’ status and strengths are really in decline.”

What’s at stake at APEC and what Trump missed

APEC’s significance has waned in recent years, especially as Washington retreats from the global trading norms it once championed. Trump’s sweeping tariffs and combative trade tactics have unsettled allies and rivals alike.

While APEC members may reach modest agreements on topics like job training or environmental cooperation, the forum’s true value lies in the informal discussions it fosters. This year, Trump’s absence removes one of its most influential voices — and possibly, its biggest wildcard.

South Korea’s deputy national security director, Oh Hyunjoo, admitted that formulating a joint statement among APEC members has become “difficult because the basic rule-based order based on the World Trade Organization is now beginning to crack.”

Even so, Seoul hopes to use the summit to push forward discussions on artificial intelligence, population ageing and climate change.

“We’re entering an era shaped by AI, while also facing global challenges such as population decline and climate change,” said Ban Kil Joo, a professor at South Korea’s National Diplomatic Academy. “Even if the agenda doesn’t explicitly include ‘free trade,’ there are many issues that countries must jointly confront and solve together.”

China’s turn to lead cautiously

Trump’s absence places a sharper spotlight on Xi and a rising China — though that attention is not entirely comfortable for Beijing.

“The world is preparing for a post-U.S. era,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “It has become a common consensus that there is no U.S. in APEC, or there is a U.S. with less input or without leadership. The world has higher expectations for China.”

Wang added, however, that China still prefers cooperation: “Without China-U.S. cooperation, China cannot lead the world, nor does it want to. It is hoped that the U.S. could return to the APEC family and the globalisation family.”

At the forum, Xi is expected to deliver what China’s state-run Global Times calls an “important speech” on global economic uncertainty and rising protectionism. “Chinese wisdom” and “Chinese solutions,” the paper wrote, have become focal points of attention at APEC this year — in no small part because of America’s absence.