Why Putin’s Ukraine proposal focuses on the Donbas — and why Trump backs it

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been equally clear in rejecting any concession of territory not already under Russian occupation. He has said Ukraine “will not leave the Donbas,” framing the defence of the region as a matter of national sovereignty. Roughly 200,000 civilians still live in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donbas, particularly in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. For Kyiv, abandoning these citizens and legitimizing Russia’s land grab is politically and morally impossible.

Historical claims and contested identity

Putin’s demands rest partly on historical arguments. The Donbas, once majority Ukrainian, saw demographic shifts during Stalin’s industrialization campaigns that brought large numbers of Russian workers. By the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian was the dominant language. Moscow has long invoked this identity to justify its claim. Yet, in Ukraine’s 2019 presidential election, Donbas voters backed Zelensky overwhelmingly, signalling loyalty to Kyiv rather than Moscow despite shared language and culture.

The wider battlefield stakes

Since 2014, Russia and its proxies have seized roughly 87 percent of Donbas. The remaining territory, heavily fortified, has been the site of the war’s deadliest battles. Military analysts warn that without a cease-fire, the fight for Donbas will stretch into next year with enormous casualties. For Putin, securing the region would allow him to claim victory domestically. For Ukraine, holding Donbas is critical to preventing further Russian advances into the heartland.

Will Putin stop at Donbas?

While Moscow signals willingness to freeze fighting elsewhere if it gains the Donbas, many analysts doubt Putin would stop there. Russian nationalists continue to press for more land in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, while others envision regime change in Kyiv. Yet Russia’s economic stagnation and military strain raise doubts about its capacity for further conquests. For now, Putin may settle for Donbas as a face-saving outcome he can present as success at home.

What comes next

Zelensky is set to meet Trump in Washington with strong backing from European leaders. The White House encounter will test whether Ukraine can resist pressure to concede territory while keeping allied support intact. Trump and Putin have signalled willingness to enshrine Donbas in a deal, but Ukraine and its allies view such a move as a dangerous precedent. The fate of this industrial region may ultimately determine the war’s trajectory.