Afghanistan’s recent decision to close the Torkham border crossing has sent shock-waves through Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic sectors, underscoring a deeper shift in regional dynamics. The closure of one of South Asia’s busiest border points has disrupted both local and international trade, signalling a growing transfer of economic and political leverage from Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Economic strain on Pakistan
For Pakistan, the halt at Torkham poses significant economic challenges. Afghanistan has been one of Pakistan’s most reliable export markets over the past three years, importing nearly 2 billion dollars’ worth of goods annually, including foodstuffs, building materials, medicines, and other essentials. A prolonged closure would interrupt these shipments, while alternative routes would be costlier and less efficient.
Pakistan also faces a substantial loss in transit revenue. Goods destined for Afghanistan traditionally pass through Pakistani ports such as Karachi, providing Islamabad with valuable income. Any extended suspension of transit trade will deepen Pakistan’s already difficult economic situation.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s wider regional ambitions will be affected. Much of its trade with Central Asia and even Europe depends on access through Afghanistan and the Torkham crossing. Continued closures could cost Pakistani industries billions in logistics and trade fees. The impact on livelihoods is already visible, with truck drivers, small traders, and logistics workers facing sudden unemployment and income instability.
The shutdown also raises concerns about the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Waziristan region near the Afghan border, through which CPEC routes pass, is already vulnerable due to security challenges. Pakistan and China have sought to bring Afghanistan into the project, but border tensions and mistrust continue to impede cooperation. Analysts caution that persistent instability could undermine one of Pakistan’s most critical economic initiatives.
Limited impact on Afghanistan
While Afghanistan may initially face shortages of food, medicines, and other essentials, the overall economic effect is expected to be limited. Kabul has reduced its dependence on Pakistan by diversifying trade ties with Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and China. This diversification helps Afghanistan manage border disruptions without paralysing its markets.
Afghan traders are also adjusting. Goods such as vegetables and fruits that were previously exported to Pakistan are being redirected to domestic markets in Nangarhar and nearby districts. Nangarhar deputy governor M Walvi Azizullah Mustafa reassured traders during a meeting in Jalalabad, saying officials are working to create strong domestic and international markets. He urged citizens, especially the wealthy, to support local traders and businessmen.
For years, Afghan authorities have accused Pakistan of obstructing their exports during peak seasons, particularly agricultural goods, describing it as part of an anti-Afghan economic policy. The latest closure is therefore seen in Kabul not as an anomaly, but as a familiar point of friction in a deeply strained relationship.
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