Trump skips Israel on Mideast tour, raising questions about shift in US support

Additionally, Israel has not been spared from Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime. A new 17% US import duty on Israeli goods went into effect despite Jerusalem offering reciprocal trade concessions. Together, these actions have upended the expectations of many Israeli officials who anticipated a second Trump term would resemble his first—one defined by unflinching support for Israel and deep political alignment.

From ‘honeymoon’ to realism

“There’s a very clear-eyed understanding that President Trump isn’t Israel’s prime minister, but the president of the US,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. While the bond remains strong, Plesner and others see a shift from automatic alignment to a more transactional partnership, with each side prioritizing its own strategic interests.

This recalibration was evident as Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, stated bluntly that the US “doesn’t have to tell Israel everything it is going to do.” That message, combined with the administration’s silence on Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and its reluctance to pressure Israel on aid access, suggests a hands-off approach to managing Israeli affairs—at least for now.

Netanyahu walks a fine line

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long aligned himself with the Republican Party and with Trump personally, is facing pressure from both the right and left in Israel. The left accuses him of failing to secure the release of Israeli hostages, while the right fears he may bow to US pressure to end the Gaza war without a full defeat of Hamas.

Behind the scenes, Netanyahu’s close adviser Ron Dermer visited Washington last week to reassess Israel’s standing with the Trump administration. Following the meetings, Israeli officials expressed confidence that US and Israeli goals remain aligned on major issues like Hamas, Gaza’s future, and nuclear diplomacy with Iran. Still, the relationship is no longer described as “lockstep,” with one Israeli official calling it “a tango” where “partners sometimes step on each other’s toes.”

Trump’s priorities shift to broader gains

Trump’s strategy appears focused on achieving broader diplomatic or economic wins in the Middle East—objectives that may not always require Israeli involvement. Analysts believe Trump is eager to close deals that signal US strength and a break from past “forever wars,” even if those moves complicate traditional alliances.

“The US is working on a different script in the region,” said Yoel Guzansky of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “It doesn’t necessarily contain Israel.”

That evolving script is also influenced by the ideological divide within Trump’s own administration. While some of his top officials remain staunch supporters of Israel, others—particularly those aligned with the America First movement—hold more isolationist views and are less inclined to privilege Israeli concerns in US foreign policy.

Israeli public opinion growing wary

Polling suggests that Israeli confidence in Trump remains high—but not without hesitation. While 65% of Israelis believed Trump would better serve Israel’s interests compared to then-opponent Kamala Harris, more recent surveys show a split opinion on whether Trump will prioritize Israel’s security in future Iran negotiations.

“There is genuine concern here,” said Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington. “I don’t know how much of it is justified, but it’s real.”