US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against India risk undoing decades of hard-won diplomatic progress between New Delhi and Washington, according to Daniel Block, Senior Editor at Foreign Affairs.
Speaking exclusively to India Today Global, Block said the Trump administration is sending mixed signals on its India policy. “There are multiple voices within the administration pushing or pulling Trump in various directions,” he noted. Block pointed to the sharp contrast between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has urged finding “common ground” with India, and trade hardliner Peter Navarro, who has gone as far as calling the Russia-Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war.”
Block argued that America’s credibility is being weakened by such contradictions. He highlighted the fact that Washington initially encouraged India to buy Russian oil under price caps in order to stabilize global markets and help US allies in Europe. Former US Ambassador Eric Garcetti even admitted this publicly.
According to Block, Trump’s approach could end up pushing India closer to rivals like China. “There’s no imaginable world where Trump’s current behavior toward India is not going to push India at least a little bit closer to countries that the United States would rather India be in competition with, like China,” he said.
This risk is particularly significant as Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Analysts fear these meetings could bring India deeper into the Russia-China orbit, which Washington has long tried to prevent.
On the economic side, Block gave a cautious assessment of the tariffs. “It will probably drive up prices and slow growth, but it might not be utterly catastrophic,” he explained. He added that this could make the trade war “more sustainable than some people think,” which would extend the strain on India-US relations.
Block also pointed out a deeper political issue. Both Trump and Modi are strong nationalist leaders, which, in his view, has fueled confrontation instead of cooperation. “Mutual antagonisms build and rise,” he said, noting that the expected chemistry between the two leaders has not materialised.
As PM Modi’s visit moves forward, Block believes the stakes are extremely high. Trump’s tariff war, intended to pressure India, may instead serve China’s long-term goal of pulling India away from the West. The unanswered question, he warned, is whether Washington will realise the danger before it is too late.
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