‘No West if this continues’: What Elon Musk's repeated warnings about population collapse really mean | Explained

In discussions around demographic change, Musk framed low birth rates as the root issue, while asserting that migration, though historically a concern, is secondary. He suggested that migrating populations alone cannot sustain the cultural, economic, or societal foundations of the West if native fertility continues to drop.

Supporting his views, a 2025 report from the United Nations Population Fund, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, underscores declining global fertility due to high child-rearing costs and challenges in forming partnerships. The same report refers to a re-evaluation of the replacement fertility rate, suggesting it is closer to 2.7 children per woman rather than the commonly cited 2.1. Musk used this recalibration to argue that developed countries, including the US, Italy, and Japan, whose fertility rates hover between 1.3 and 1.66, are well below sustainable levels.

Pro-natalism and Musk’s personal campaign

Musk backs up his demographic warnings with personal decisions. He is a father of at least 14 children and has signalled his intent to have many more, even through surrogacy and non-traditional living arrangements. A Financial Times report describes how he encourages parenthood via platforms and incentives, although critics argue his approach raises ethical and ideological concerns.

Some of his proposals echo government pronatalist policies considered by the Trump administration, including baby bonuses, motherhood awards, and scholarships for parents. These policy ideas suggest a blending of Musk’s influence with broader political initiatives.

Still, commentators question whether Musk’s personal parenting is a substitute for thoughtful public policy. A Washington Post editorial points out that while the world population is projected to continue growing for decades, Musk’s framing exaggerates the threat. It also raises concerns that segments of the pronatalist movement focus narrowly on increasing birthrates among white, native-born Americans.

Expert critiques: Is civilisation at risk?

Experts in demography generally disagree with Musk’s apocalyptic framing. A report by Population Matters critiques Musk’s view, describing it as alarmist. It notes that global population is still expected to grow well into the next century, and that many challenges are better addressed through welfare, gender equality, and reproductive rights, rather than invoking population collapse narratives.

Similarly, experts have emphasised that while an aging population is a serious economic issue, there are policy tools like automation, immigration, and revised social safety nets that can mitigate its impact. Musk rarely addresses how such solutions might fit into a future with declining birth rates.

Musk promotes data-driven, but provocative discourse

Elon Musk often amplifies his demographic arguments through bold assertions. For example, he responded to a provocative video featuring a Pakistani man warning Danes that they would be replaced by Pakistanis. Musk remarked, somewhat calmly, that “his math is correct,” highlighting his focus on numbers, even when the original message is inflammatory.

Likewise, when a Boston imam referred to “sick white Americans” as a threat and told them to “go back to Europe,” many online voices responded by calling for Musk to weigh in or enforce consequences. Musk offered a swift “Wow” in response, neither endorsing nor condemning the statement but drawing attention to the incident.

Demographic truths: Changing classrooms in UK

Musk has also pointed to the demographic shifts in British schools as evidence of accelerated transformation. He shared figures from the UK Department for Education showing that one in four schools in England now has native British students in the minority, and in some cases none at all.

Credible data confirms this trend. Reports show that in over 5,400 of England’s 21,500 primary and secondary schools, White British pupils no longer form the majority. In many cases, their numbers are under 2 percent, or even zero.

The shift is especially pronounced in urban areas. In London, White British students are a minority in every borough except Bromley. Similar shifts are reported in cities like Birmingham, Manchester, and Leicester.

Analysis of census data reveals that White British children make up approximately 65 percent of primary school students nationwide, down from 80–85 percent a couple of decades ago. Projections suggest that they could fall below 50 percent in the near future.

These demographic shifts are visible in local areas too. In Bradford, White British pupils declined from 61.7 percent in 2004 to 40.1 percent in 2022. In Luton, White British school enrollment fell from 49.5 percent in 2004 to 17.2 percent in 2022, making British Pakistanis the largest group at 25.1 percent.

Summing up Musk’s messaging

Musk continues to warn publicly that the West faces a structural crisis if fertility rates remain below replacement levels. He argues that immigration offers no long-term remedy and calls for broader attention to pro-natalist policies. His messaging emphasises raw numbers and historical analogies, and bypasses nuanced demographic analysis or policy options.

His personal stance -- having many children while advocating for societal rebirth -- highlights a dramatic, activist approach. That said, experts caution against framing population decline as an existential civilisational threat. Credible projections show world population rising for decades to come, and policy solutions exist for aging societies.

Musk’s comments resonate because they touch on deep anxieties about identity, culture, and sustainability. But they also risk oversimplifying complex demographic trends. Understanding the future of Western societies will rely not only on fertility data but on how economies, education, migration and integration adapt.