Pakistan is no stranger to military dominance cloaked in civilian rule. Now, with more and more reports suggesting that Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is manoeuvring to become the next President – replacing Asif Ali Zardari – the spectre of yet another soft coup looms large over Islamabad.
While these are mere speculations, if this shift materialises, it won’t just deepen the military’s grip over Pakistan’s political machinery; it will also reduce Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to a ceremonial figure -- or worse, a disposable pawn.
Asim Munir’s quiet power grab
Munir, who is already the most powerful man in Pakistan, appears to be preparing to formalise that dominance by stepping into the presidency. This would mark a strategic elevation; while the office of President in Pakistan is mostly ceremonial, it becomes immensely influential when occupied by a military strongman.
Munir’s recent actions seem to betray his intent. He met US President Donald Trump in a closed-door interaction at the White House last month, bypassing PM Shehbaz Sharif. Even more telling, Munir is currently touring Sri Lanka and Indonesia without Sharif. The message is unmistakable – the Army chief is conducting foreign diplomacy like a head of state, not a military commander.
This pattern reminds of the early 2000s when former military ruler Pervez Musharraf – holding de facto and de jure power simultaneously – sidelined elected leaders.
What happens to Shehbaz Sharif?
If Munir becomes the President of Pakistan, Sharif’s fate is likely to mirror that of his predecessors who served under military dominance. In essence, he would be relegated to a powerless premiership – a mere rubber stamp on decisions made by GHQ Rawalpindi.
When Pervez Musharraf took over in a military coup in 1999 and later became President, he cycled through four weak Prime Ministers during his nine-year rule: Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Shaukat Aziz and Muhammad Mian Soomro (caretaker).
Each of them functioned more like a glorified bureaucrat than a national leader. Decisions on foreign policy, defence, economy, and internal security came directly from the Army headquarters. Parliament was reduced to a rubber-stamp institution, and the judiciary was brought to heel through coercion and intimidation.
There is little reason to believe that Shehbaz Sharif, a seasoned but pliable politician, would fare any better. Munir is known to be more controlling and opaquer than even his predecessors, often bypassing cabinet processes and issuing direct instructions to ministries through his confidants planted across civil institutions.
India must watch closely: A militarised Pakistan is a volatile one
For India, Munir’s potential transition to the presidency would not be a welcome development. Historically, military-led governments in Pakistan have pursued more confrontational and deceptive strategies towards India, often sidelining peace processes in favour of brinkmanship and covert operations.
If General Munir becomes Pakistan’s president, India can expect a tougher stance on Kashmir. This could mean more aggressive speeches, increased cross-border attacks, and a rise in information warfare from Pakistan.
As a former ISI chief, Munir’s presidency would likely give more power to Pakistan’s intelligence agency. This is worrying for India, given ISI’s long history of supporting terror groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan, especially secret backchannel efforts, may come to a halt. Military leadership typically avoids dialogue unless it serves a strategic purpose.
India may also see a closer partnership between China and Pakistan. This could result in more pressure along the Line of Actual Control, with both countries coordinating moves against India.
Finally, India should prepare for more Pakistani activity in conflict zones beyond Kashmir. Under Munir, the military could push harder in places like Afghanistan or the Indian Ocean, using proxies or expanding naval operations -- steps a civilian government might avoid.
Zardari’s likely exit: The last civilian obstacle
President Asif Ali Zardari’s presence is currently one of the few nominal civilian checks in Pakistan’s governance structure. However, reports suggest that the military leadership views him as expendable and is working to ease him out. Once Zardari is out of the way, Asim Munir’s ascension to the presidency becomes a matter of timing, not speculation.
Zardari has maintained a transactional relationship with the military. But even he may not be able to withstand the pressure from a general who has already sidelined the Prime Minister and taken the reins of foreign policy and national security.
Soft coup in progress
This wouldn’t be a traditional military coup -- tanks won’t roll into Islamabad, and there won’t be an official suspension of the constitution. But functionally, a power transfer from an elected civilian president to the Chief of Army Staff would constitute a soft coup -- a silent, surgical shift of authority into the hands of the military.
The international community, particularly the US, China, and the Gulf nations, may quietly endorse this development, viewing Munir as a stable figure who can guarantee security, protect investments, and crack down on chaos. But for democracy in Pakistan, it would mark another devastating regression.
If Field Marshal Asim Munir becomes President, Pakistan will effectively be a republic in uniform, ruled not by the people, but by a single institution: the Army. Shehbaz Sharif would be left to chair inconsequential cabinet meetings and cut ribbons, while real decisions would be made behind the walls of GHQ.
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