Moderna, once a cornerstone of the Trump administration’s Covid response, is facing a steep decline in fortunes as President Trump’s second term ushers in a stricter and more sceptical stance on vaccine development. Once hailed for its role in protecting millions with its mRNA Covid-19 shot, the biotech company now finds itself under pressure from regulators, lawmakers, and a shifting public health philosophy, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Narrow FDA approval highlights new regulatory reality
On Friday, the FDA approved Moderna’s latest Covid-19 booster — but only for a limited population: older adults and high-risk individuals between the ages of 12 and 64. The decision, far narrower than the company anticipated, is a sharp departure from earlier emergency authorizations and reflects new hurdles Moderna must clear under revamped FDA rules. The agency now requires randomized, controlled trials for new vaccine iterations, raising the bar for approval and slowing down development timelines.
The biotech is also feeling the pinch from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which recently cancelled a $766 million contract awarded to Moderna under the Biden administration to develop mRNA-based vaccines for pandemic-level influenza. HHS cited both scientific and ethical concerns, calling the bird flu project “not scientifically or ethically justifiable.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s influence reshapes vaccine policy
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine sceptic, has become a key architect of the Trump administration’s public health strategy. He has dismissed mRNA vaccines for respiratory diseases as ineffective and questioned their routine use in pregnant women and children. Under his leadership, the CDC has pulled back on its vaccine recommendations and the FDA — already understaffed — has become a more cautious gatekeeper.
This shift has hurt Moderna the most, as its business is almost entirely built around mRNA technology. Unlike Pfizer or GSK, which sell a variety of products, Moderna has only three approved vaccines. Its attempts to diversify — such as a combination flu-Covid shot — have either fallen short of new regulatory standards or failed to show convincing data.
Sales drop and investor confidence wanes
Moderna’s stock has plunged more than 35% this year, dragged down by poor demand for its Covid booster and disappointing RSV vaccine sales. Its share price, which once soared to $484 in 2021, now trades near its pre-pandemic value of around $25. The company is scrambling to cut costs, having already announced research cutbacks, pipeline trims, and job losses. It plans to save another $1 billion this year and has promised to stop losing money by 2028.
The company’s cash reserves have fallen from $9.5 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.4 billion by March 2025. Analysts now estimate Moderna could run out of cash in less than two years unless it finds new revenue or takes on debt. Despite the financial pressure, Moderna says it won’t issue new equity.
A pandemic hero with an uncertain future
Moderna’s rise was meteoric. Backed by billions in government funding through Operation Warp Speed, the company raced from obscurity to global recognition in 2020. Its Covid-19 vaccine was a cornerstone of pandemic management worldwide and helped it rake in nearly $20 billion annually at its peak. But critics say the company failed to invest those profits wisely. Instead of building out a broader portfolio beyond mRNA, Moderna doubled down on a single technology — and now finds itself with fewer options as public sentiment and political leadership shift away from the urgency of pandemic science.
“They built a tank for the war, and now the war is over,” said Jared Holz, healthcare strategist at Mizuho. “They don’t, in my mind, really have a business anymore.”
Moderna insists it still has potential. CEO Stéphane Bancel argues that focusing on high-risk groups for Covid vaccination is a “net positive,” and the company maintains that its mRNA platform can deliver future breakthroughs in cancer, rare diseases, and viruses like herpes and Lyme disease. But with its most promising candidates still in development and regulatory demands rising, Moderna must now prove it can survive — and thrive — in a post-pandemic, politically divided world.
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