North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is on a rare diplomatic visit to China today. He left North Korea by train, a slow but heavily armoured mode of travel used by the country’s leaders for decades. He is expected to reach Beijing on Tuesday, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.
Kim is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the trip. Experts say the visit could be Kim’s attempt to formalise his relationships with North Korea’s two main allies and raise his profile on the international stage.
Beijing is holding a large military parade this week to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II. Kim and Putin are among 26 heads of state expected to attend. This is the first time both leaders will appear with Xi at the same event.
Their attendance sends a clear message to the world. Soo Kim, a geopolitical risk consultant and former CIA analyst, told AFP, "What better way to send a visual message to the rest of the world, notably the US, Japan, and South Korea, that this is indeed the trilateral they are going against?"
Why does it matter?
North Korea and Russia are long-time allies and have grown closer since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Kim has sent weapons and troops to support Moscow.
Soo Kim said, "This not only earned Kim a sweet spot with Putin. Effectively, it also helped him strengthen his global positioning." By working more closely with Russia, Kim has been able to emerge from international isolation after years of UN sanctions over North Korea's weapons programs.
China is North Korea’s other main ally and has not condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine. Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said, "With Putin also in attendance, the event showcases a North Korea-China-Russia socialist alignment, with Pyongyang seeking to position itself as a key player in the trilateral framework."
What does it mean for Kim?
Kim had a brief period of high-profile diplomacy around 2018, meeting US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in multiple times. But he withdrew from the global stage after the failed summit with Trump in Hanoi in 2019 and stayed inside North Korea during the Covid-19 pandemic. He met Putin in Russia in 2023.
Cheong Seong-chang of Seoul’s Sejong Institute said, "Kim Jong Un’s trip to Beijing could signal that, like his grandfather, he will now become more active in foreign diplomacy." He added that the trip could also be practical because "for aid-dependent Pyongyang, Chinese support is essential."
Xi is expected to visit South Korea later this year. Kim’s trip could be a way to ensure Pyongyang does not lose influence as China strengthens ties with Seoul.
What about Trump?
The parade comes as Donald Trump works to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump has met Kim three times and has said they fell "in love." Since the failed 2019 summit, North Korea has declared itself an "irreversible" nuclear state and rejected any offers to improve ties with South Korea.
Vladimir Tikhonov, a professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP, "Putin may serve as a useful go-between for Kim and Trump. It is a sad irony. Putin has been indicted for war-related crimes, but he is also perhaps the only contemporary power holder whom both Trump and Kim trust."
What could happen next?
If the visit goes well, Kim could gain future diplomatic benefits. Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in South Korea, told AFP, "It opens up the possibility of a reciprocal visit by Xi to Pyongyang for a key anniversary in October, which Kim will be eager to use for domestic political wins."
Lim added, "If Kim succeeds in securing Xi’s visit, it would raise the regime’s status to its highest level."
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