Is the US pushing Ukraine to give up land and cut its army for peace with Russia? Here's what we know

Though US authorities have not officially confirmed these details, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered strong hints about the administration’s position. Writing on X, he said the United States “will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.”

He added, “Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas. And achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”

A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Kyiv has only received “signals” about the plan and that it reflects discussions between Washington and Moscow rather than joint drafting with Ukraine.

Pressure builds as battlefield and politics strain Kyiv

The timing could not be worse for Ukraine. On the ground, its forces are facing increasing pressure as Russian troops advance in several eastern areas. Nearly one fifth of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian control, with Moscow continuing a steady push supported by missile and drone strikes.

At home, political instability has also weakened Zelenskyy’s position. A corruption scandal recently led to the removal of both the energy and justice ministers, creating further strain on his administration.

Financial markets reacted quickly to the news of US-led peace efforts. Ukraine’s government bonds recorded their biggest jump in months as investors reacted to the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

Zelenskyy avoids direct comment but stresses US role

Zelenskyy has so far avoided addressing the draft proposal directly. During a visit to Turkey where he met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he focused instead on the importance of American leadership in the peace process.

In a Telegram post, he said, “the main thing for stopping the bloodshed and achieving lasting peace is that we work in coordination with all our partners and that American leadership remains effective, strong.”

He also stated that only the United States and President Donald Trump “have sufficient strength for the war to finally come to an end.”

Turkey has again offered to host negotiations, reviving its earlier role as a mediator. According to Zelenskyy, Erdogan proposed several formats for discussions and Ukraine welcomed Turkey’s willingness to facilitate talks.

Europe pushes back against forced concessions

European leaders have voiced clear concern over the reported American plan. While avoiding detailed comments due to the lack of an official text, EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels made it clear they oppose any deal that weakens Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said, “Ukrainians want peace - a just peace that respects everyone’s sovereignty, a durable peace that can’t be called into question by future aggression.” He added, “But peace cannot be a capitulation.”

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski echoed this view, arguing that Ukraine should not be forced to accept terms that leave it vulnerable after already being invaded.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also underlined that any settlement must have the support of both Ukraine and Europe, warning against decisions driven only by Washington and Moscow.

Several European diplomats said privately that the proposed cuts to Ukraine’s military resemble Russia’s long-standing demands. One described the idea as incompatible with Ukraine’s security needs, while another called it an effort to corner Kyiv at a time when its leverage is limited.

Russia’s position remains unchanged

Moscow has shown no sign of softening its stance. President Vladimir Putin continues to demand that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions and withdraw from the four regions Russia claims as its own.

Russian forces, controlling about 19 percent of Ukraine, are pressing ahead with gradual territorial gains while intensifying attacks on energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

Although Putin has said he is open to discussions with Turkey and the US, Russia has not taken part in recent talks held in Ankara between Zelenskyy and Erdogan. No direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow have taken place since a brief meeting in Istanbul in July.

Are security guarantees enough?

The US plan, according to Axios, may involve a trade-off where Ukraine gives up territory in exchange for security guarantees intended to deter future Russian aggression. European officials remain sceptical about whether such guarantees would hold over time, particularly in light of changing political climates in Washington.

Ukrainian leaders have long argued that similar assurances failed in the past and that surrendering land could invite further aggression rather than prevent it. Public opinion in Ukraine also remains firmly against territorial concessions, making any such move politically risky for Zelenskyy.

What happens next

A US delegation led by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has arrived in Kyiv for what has been described as a fact-finding mission. US Army Chief of Staff General Randy George is also part of the team. They are scheduled to meet Zelenskyy to assess military conditions and discuss Ukraine’s defence needs.

This visit suggests that while diplomatic outreach is intensifying, Washington is still reviewing Ukraine’s battlefield reality before finalising its approach.

As the war nears its fourth year, Ukraine faces mounting military, political and economic pressure, while Russia shows little willingness to compromise. Meanwhile, Europe remains wary of any peace deal that trades land and security for short-term calm.