Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei believes AI can achieve a century of medical advancements in just 10 years

"...people sometimes draw the conclusion that I’m a pessimist or 'doomer' who thinks AI will be mostly bad or dangerous. I don’t think that at all. In fact, one of my main reasons for focusing on risks is that they’re the only thing standing between us and what I see as a fundamentally positive future," Amodei wrote in the post.

AI in biology and medicine

One of the most compelling ideas Amodei presents is the concept of "biological freedom"—a future where people gain control over their health and biology. Amodei believes that AI will play a crucial role in eliminating diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's, while also extending human lifespan.

"My basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. I’ll refer to this as the “compressed 21st century”: the idea that after powerful AI is developed, we will, in a few years, make all the progress in biology and medicine that we would have made in the whole of 21st century," Amodei said.

Amodei predicts that “powerful AI” could be developed as early as 2026. By this, he refers to AI systems that surpass the intelligence of Nobel Prize winners in areas such as biology and engineering. These AI models “can prove unsolved mathematical theorems, write extremely good novels, write difficult codebases from scratch, etc.,” he said.

Bridging the economic divide

While Amodei believes that AI holds the potential to revolutionise healthcare, there’s a pressing question: will everyone have access to these technologies?

Amodei sees AI as a catalyst for economic growth in developing nations. Drawing on historical examples of economic advancement, he said that AI could act as a virtual finance minister, helping countries achieve sustainable economic growth.

"Overall, I am optimistic about quickly bringing AI’s biological advances to people in the developing world. I am hopeful, though not confident, that AI can also enable unprecedented economic growth rates and allow the developing world to at least surpass where the developed world is now,” Amodei said.

However, Amodei acknowledged the challenges ahead. To prevent AI-driven growth from worsening existing inequalities, he said that issues related to governance, corruption, and social complexities must be addressed.

“One concern in both developed and developing world alike is that people are opting out of AI-enabled benefits (similar to the anti-vaccine movement, or Luddite movements more generally). They could end up being bad feedback cycles where, for example, the people who are least able to make good decisions opt out of the very technologies that improve their decision-making abilities, leading to an ever-increasing gap and even creating a dystopian underclass,” he said.

Amodei also believes that AI could help solve global hunger and tackle climate change.

"Advances in crop technology like better fertilizers and pesticides, more automation, and more efficient land use drastically increased crop yields across the 20th century, saving millions of people from hunger," he said.

He added that climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development. "We can expect that AI will lead to improvements in technologies that slow or prevent climate change, from atmospheric carbon removal and clean energy technology to lab-grown meat that reduces our reliance on carbon-intensive factory farming," he said.

Governance and peace

Amodei also warns of the complex interplay between technology and governance. He says that while AI has the potential to boost democracy and peace, it also poses risks that could empower authoritarian regimes.

"AI-powered authoritarianism seems too terrible to contemplate, so democracies need to be able to set the terms by which powerful AI is brought into the world, both to avoid being overpowered by authoritarians and to prevent human rights abuses within authoritarian countries," Amodei said.

He calls for a collaborative approach among democratic nations to ensure that the global AI landscape remains favourable to liberty and human rights.

"This coalition would, on the one hand, use AI to achieve robust military superiority (the stick) while, on the other, offer to distribute the benefits of powerful AI (the carrot) to a wider and wider group of countries in exchange for supporting the coalition’s strategy to promote democracy," he added.

Work and meaning in an AI-driven future

Amodei also touches upon the philosophical questions surrounding work and meaning in an AI-dominated future.

"On the question of meaning, I think it is very likely a mistake to believe that tasks you undertake are meaningless simply because an AI could do them better. Most people are not the best in the world at anything, and it doesn’t seem to bother them particularly much. Of course, today, they can still contribute through comparative advantage, and may derive meaning from the economic value they produce, but people also greatly enjoy activities that produce no economic value. I spend plenty of time playing video games, swimming, walking around outside, and talking to friends, all of which generate zero economic value. I might spend a day trying to get better at a video game, or faster at biking up a mountain, and it doesn’t really matter to me that someone somewhere is much better at those things," he said.

"In any case I think meaning comes mostly from human relationships and connection, not from economic labour," he added.