Speculations regarding a crash on Earth were previously brought by a newly discovered asteroid. Initially, scientists feared that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032. New data, however, changed the prediction, easing fears but raising new questions regarding its path.
New Estimates Lower the Odds of Earth Collision
The probabilities of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth were low when it was originally detected in December 2024. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA estimated that there was a 3% probability of an impact. The experts breathed easy when later computations indicated that the threat had lowered to a mere 0.28%.
More precise information was provided by the James Webb Space Telescope in late March 2025. The asteroid will not strike Earth, based on its observations. Scientists have not completely discounted all hazards, however.
Would YR4 2024 Hit the Moon?
Earth is secure, but there's now a slight risk for the Moon. As per astronomer Andrew Rivkin, there's a 2% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon. This figure is slightly greater than the 1.7% NASA had earlier estimated in February.
Prior to moving further into space, the Webb telescope will again observe the asteroid in May 2025.
These findings will enable scientists to have a better understanding of near-Earth objects.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: What is it?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was found on December 27, 2024. The first sighting of it was by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Initial estimates placed it around the size of a football field. It is now estimated to be between 53 and 67 meters, or approximately the same height as a 10-story skyscraper.
Rocks known as asteroids orbit the Sun. They contain no gas or ice like comets. Although some asteroids approach Earth, most of them orbit between Mars and Jupiter.
What would happen if it hit the moon?
Since billions of years ago, the Moon has been shaped by asteroid impacts. NASA claims that if there were a collision, it wouldn't change the Moon's path. However, a hit would result in a new crater on the Moon's surface. Scientists are still monitoring 2024 YR4 and updating their predictions based on new data.
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