How Ukraine shifted dynamics of war with bold invasion of Russia

Ukraine's recent offensive into Russia's Kursk region marks a high-stakes gamble in the ongoing conflict. Despite Russia's dominance along much of the frontline and its advances in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have made unexpected gains, capturing territory and potentially stretching Russian military capacity. Holding this ground could deliver a significant blow to President Putin and provide Ukraine with leverage in future peace negotiations. However, failure could see Russia pushing Ukrainian troops back, possibly gaining more ground, especially in the Donetsk region.

According to the New York Times, Ukrainian officials have remained silent on their strategy, with President Zelensky only acknowledging the operation days after it began. The secrecy was so intense that even Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts were caught off guard.

“This is a good example of how a modern successful operation requires extreme operational security measures and deception,” said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, according to The New York Times.

A Secret Buildup

According to The New York Times, Ukraine's surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk region was a meticulously planned operation involving months of secrecy and deception. Independent analysts' battlefield maps reveal that Ukrainian soldiers from brigades long stationed in the east discreetly moved into Ukraine’s Sumy region, just across the border from Kursk. Although some Russians noticed the buildup, reports to Russian military leadership were dismissed with orders "not to panic," as recounted by Andrei Gurulyov, a prominent Russian MP and former army officer, on national television.

The operation caught many off guard, as Ukrainian brigades had been low on ammunition, and the country was grappling with a sense of fatalism amid Russian advances in the east. Despite this, Ukraine managed to shuffle parts of brigades into Sumy under the guise of training and picking up new equipment. To avoid detection, officers were instructed not to wear military uniforms when entering towns and cities. Some local residents noticed unusual activity, such as the movement of heavy vehicles, but remained silent.

Even within the Ukrainian army, details of the mission were kept under wraps. Lieutenant Colonel Artem, a brigade’s deputy commander, said that senior officers were informed of the operation’s goals just days before the attack: to divert Russian troops from the Donbas region, push Russian artillery out of Sumy’s range, and demoralise Russian forces by exposing their intelligence failures.

Challenges Ahead

Ukraine’s military has launched its most significant incursion into Russian territory since the beginning of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022. While previous forays were limited to commando raids claimed by paramilitary groups like the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, this offensive represents a bold escalation. Targeting the Kursk region, which has weaker defences compared to other areas along the 600-mile front, Ukrainian forces exploited the lack of anti-armour vehicle ditches, dragon’s teeth obstacles, and manned positions.

“Russia’s fortifications in Kursk are less dense than in other areas where Russian forces have built formidable defences, such as in the south,” noted Brady Africk, an American analyst who specialises in mapping Russia’s defences, as quoted by The New York Times.

On 6 August, Russian authorities reported that around 300 Ukrainian soldiers, supported by more than 20 armoured vehicles and 11 tanks, had crossed into the country. Initial scepticism greeted these reports, as disinformation is rife in this conflict, but the reality soon became clear. Hundreds more Ukrainian troops breached border checkpoints, advancing through two lines of defence with relative speed due to the fewer mines and military obstacles in the region.

Oleksandr, a Ukrainian infantry soldier, described how many Russian soldiers fled as Ukrainian forces advanced, with eight surrendering at one checkpoint. “We all have joy in our hearts,” he said, “But we realise that there are still difficult challenges ahead,” the report quoted. Some Ukrainian troops have even posted videos and selfies from captured Russian towns, celebrating their advance.

Evacuation

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region brought sudden violence to border communities. Residents of Sudzha, a town of around 6,000, experienced the attack with loud explosions. The NYT report quotes Ivan, a 34-year-old resident, who described in a text exchange how he was trying to help evacuate people. Later, he reported being in hospital after his car was struck by shelling while leaving the town. “We’ve all been ditched,” Ivan said. “People are helping with whatever they can. The government doesn’t care.”

On Monday, the governor of Kursk claimed that over 100 civilians had been injured and a dozen killed, though these figures remain unverified. Satellite images reviewed by The New York Times revealed that at least two dozen structures in Sudzha and the neighbouring village of Goncharovka were damaged or destroyed, including homes, an apartment building, a gas station, and parts of an art school.

As the conflict escalated, the city of Kursk became crowded with people fleeing the fighting. Yan S. Furtsev, a 38-year-old independent political activist in the city, noted that opinions about the war vary widely. However, he added, “But as for what people think, everyone believes that this is a tragedy.”