Ukraine peace talks: European leaders strategize as US-Russia negotiations begin

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to attend the Paris summit just days before Germany’s elections underscores growing anxiety over Trump’s approach to Ukraine. While mainstream German parties reject US proposals to exclude Ukraine and the EU from negotiations, far-right factions support talks with Russia. Germany has significantly increased defence spending since 2022, but economic struggles and political instability have limited public appetite for military escalation. Scholz remains cautious about committing German troops to any post-war force in Ukraine.

Poland

As a staunch Ukraine supporter and NATO’s frontline state, Poland is alarmed by Washington’s willingness to negotiate with Moscow on key demands. Warsaw views Russia as an existential threat and has nearly doubled defence spending to 5% of GDP. Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that failing to invest in European defence now could lead to much higher costs in the future. While Poland remains committed to arming Ukraine, officials have ruled out sending troops to enforce any ceasefire at this stage.

The Nordic and Baltic countries

Denmark, the only Nordic nation at the Paris talks, is expected to represent the security concerns of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—countries that see themselves as Russia’s next targets if Ukraine falls. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has engaged in urgent diplomatic efforts to bolster European security cooperation in response to Trump’s shifting US policy. While Denmark has not yet pledged peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, officials indicate that the option remains open for discussion.

France

French President Emmanuel Macron convened the Paris meeting to unify Europe’s response to Washington’s evolving position on Ukraine. Macron has warned of a “Trump-Putin axis” that risks sidelining Europe and undermining NATO cohesion. With European leaders increasingly concerned about being excluded from negotiations, Macron stressed the need for collective security planning, including the potential formation of an EU-led peacekeeping force. The French government has yet to commit to specific troop deployments.

Russia

Moscow has made clear that its main conditions for peace include formal recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, the lifting of Western sanctions, and a halt to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. While European nations reject these terms outright, the Trump administration has suggested that both sides must make compromises. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will attend the Riyadh talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Moscow signalling that it sees the US—not Europe—as its primary negotiating partner.

The US

Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a priority, but his administration has not outlined what a post-war Ukraine would look like. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff will lead negotiations in Riyadh, but Trump himself remains deeply involved in the process. The US has signalled that Ukraine may not regain all of its occupied territory, sparking concerns in Kyiv and among European allies. Trump has also pushed for Ukraine to provide access to rare minerals in exchange for US aid, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Ukraine

Excluded from both the Paris and Riyadh talks, Ukraine faces deep uncertainty over its future. President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that any deal without Ukraine’s involvement is invalid. Kyiv fears that a settlement resembling previous agreements, such as the 2014 and 2015 Minsk accords, would only lead to another Russian invasion in the future. With Russia occupying 25% of Ukraine’s territory and attacks ongoing, Ukrainian officials remain sceptical of any peace deal that does not include strong security guarantees.