Veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer, renowned for her influential work with the Des Moines Register, announced Sunday that she is stepping away from election polling and ending her longstanding relationship with the newspaper after a career spanning nearly three decades. Selzer, whose final contract with the Register was set to expire in 2024, revealed that she had already planned her departure over a year ago as she transitioned to new ventures.
In an op-ed for the newspaper, Selzer explained that while she would have preferred to leave on a high note with a poll aligning with Election Day results, the final Iowa poll she conducted painted a surprising picture. The poll, released just days before the election, found Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three percentage points in a state widely considered safe for the Republicans. In reality, Trump won Iowa by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent, marking a significant miscalculation.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer wrote. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News, and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
Selzer’s polling in Iowa has long been considered a benchmark in political forecasting. Her work correctly predicted the order of Democratic candidates in the 2004 Iowa caucuses and accurately forecast Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 caucuses, a feat that earned her widespread recognition, according to a report by Politico. She also predicted Rick Santorum’s surprise surge in the 2012 GOP caucus, helping shape the narrative that led to his unexpected win, the report added.
However, the final Iowa poll of 2024 has sparked questions about the accuracy of Selzer’s methodology, with a review of the results yet to pinpoint a clear reason for the disparity. The Des Moines Register has announced plans to reassess its polling approach moving forward. The newspaper’s editor, Carol Hunter, noted that while Selzer’s Iowa Poll has been a “legacy indicator” in the state, the paper is now exploring ways to ensure more accurate surveys in the future, the Politico report added.
In her departure, Selzer reflected on the challenges of election polling in recent years, particularly the increasing difficulty of predicting outcomes as the landscape shifts. She emphasized her unwavering commitment to integrity and data-driven conclusions throughout her career.
“My integrity means a lot to me,” Selzer wrote. “To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues, and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy.”
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