Over 64 countries, representing approximately 49 percent of the global population go to the polls in 2024 to elect leaders. The political fate of more than 4 billion people will be decided over the next 12 months, in Taiwan, Russia, India, the United States, Britain, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Venezuela, and a host of other nations.
In his televised New Year’s address, French President Emmanuel Macron, said the European Parliament elections in June would present “a decisive choice” between “the continuation of Europe, or blocking it” amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
However, the most consequential of these elections is considered to be the one to be held in the United States in November with former President Donald Trump eyeing a return to the White House.
Trump looms large
According to The Economist, Trump securing a second term can be termed “the biggest danger to the world” in 2024. Currently, the billionaire faces a host of legal challenges. However, he is polling high enough to set the stage for a rematch with Joe Biden. But political analysts are wary of a US President with an “America first” agenda again. According to Hindustan Times, Trump assuming power may raise some global concerns at home and abroad.
At home, talks on the US debt ceiling, which affect markets around the world, could be impacted. Globally, it could endanger US support for Ukraine, participation in NATO, and ties with China among other things.
“Elections are opportunities for political turnover,” Seema Shah, head of the democracy assessment team at the Stockholm-based think tank International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) told Hindustan Times. “All the 2024 general elections carry a great deal of weight, especially for the people who are voting. At the global level, many eyes will be on India, the US, South Africa, Mexico, and the European Parliament.”
In the UK, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party are lagging behind the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, according to opinion polls. Meanwhile, who becomes the President in Taiwan may shape Beijing’s approach to the self-governed island it has repeatedly threatened with invasion.
Also read: US state of Maine blocks Trump from its Republican presidential primary
While President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out elections in Ukraine, Russia is scheduled to hold elections with President Vladimir Putin expected to stay in power. His re-election may also boost his resolve to annex Ukraine.
In South Africa, the African National Congress and President Cyril Ramaphosa have come under fire for corruption and crony capitalism. Analysts say this might result in an Opposition party coming to power for the first time since 1994.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eyeing a third term in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The hat-trick of victories in three state assemblies, combined with PM Modi's immense popularity, and emotive issues such as the Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya has made a third straight term for the BJP at the Centre 'almost an inevitability', read a column in the UK-based daily, The Guardian.
Closer home
Both Bangladesh and Pakistan will hold elections in 2024. Political tensions and public dissent are rising ahead of Bangladesh’s polls in January. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s regime has been accused of human rights violations and curbs on press freedoms.
Also read: Pakistan election body rejects ex-PM Imran Khan's candidacy for 2024 election
In Pakistan, elections have been postponed to February amid political and economic upheaval accompanied by recent events such as the ouster and imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan, the return of former premier Nawaz Sharif, and high inflation.
Outcomes of these two elections may impact not only cross-border ties but also India’s national security.
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