The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has detected a cyclonic circulation that is predicted to develop over the southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6 in its All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the same area around May 7 and then consolidate into a depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal by May 8.
Following that, it is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm as it moves nearly northward towards the Central Bay of Bengal. It will be identified as Cyclone Mocha if the system strengthens into a cyclone.
Meanwhile, a western disturbance remains in the lower and middle tropospheric levels as a trough. At lower tropospheric levels, a cyclonic circulation exists over northeast Rajasthan and the surrounding area. On the night of May 5, another new western disturbance is expected to affect Northwest India.
As a result, fresh rain or snow may begin across the region on May 5, with scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow striking the Western Himalayan Region and isolated to scattered rain or snow impacting the plains of Northwest India during the next two to three days.
A trough or wind discontinuity also stretches from southwest Madhya Pradesh to southern Tamil Nadu. A cyclonic circulation remains above north Tamil Nadu, while another cyclonic circulation exists in the lower troposphere over south Chhattisgarh.
During the next four days, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds is possible over South India due to their combined influence.
Central India may get isolated to scattered light rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds during the next four days.
Furthermore, heavy rain may fall in isolated areas of Arunachal Pradesh on May 4-5, and Assam and Meghalaya on May 4. As a result, the region may experience light to moderately widespread to widespread rainfall, as well as thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds throughout the following two days.
Maximum temperatures are expected to rise to near-normal levels across the country over the next five days, with the exception of coastal Odisha and West Bengal, where daytime temperatures will likely remain 2-4° Celsius above normal, and no heatwave conditions are expected in any part of India over the next five days.
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