By mid-July, rainfall across country to intensify: Met

After the recent Uttarakhand deluge, it does not come as a surprise when Met Department’s Director (Long Range Forecast) DS Pai says that Northwest India has received 102 percentage rainfall so far. In fact, around 91 percent of the country, leaving some parts of the northeast, has received excess or normal rainfall.

Though as of now, he says, monsoon is in a weak phase and that will continue for the next 2-3 days. "But favourable global intra-seasonal variability phase is coming and by the middle of July further improvement in rainfall activity over the country is expected," he adds.
Pai says, it is unlikely that the heavy rains will affect sowing process and harvesting will take place earlier than anticipated. "Therefore, since relatively weak rainfall is expected in the later parts of the monsoon season even that may not affect the crops being likely to harvest early," he told CNBC-TV18.
According to him, July rainfall is expected to be 101 percent of long period average (LPA) and in August it is likely to be around 96 percent of LPA. Also Read: Heavy rainfall forecasted in Uttarakhand for next 3 days Below is the verbatim transcript of DS Pai's interview on CNBC-TV18 Q: The last update from the India Meteorological Department indicates that the country has received 29 percent higher than normal rainfall between the first of June and the first of July – can you give us an indication of how the month of July and August is expected to look according to you – will the good rainfall continue?
A: After covering the country as a whole by June 16, rainfall activity has been very good in most parts of the June. As of now, monsoon is in a weak phase and that will continue for the next 2-3 days. However, a favourable global intra-seasonal variability phase is coming and by the middle of July further improvement in rainfall activity over the country is expected. August, we expect to be a normal monsoon. Q: Has it been that much of all round success though because reports seem to indicate that parts of west India and in parts of North India the spread and quantum hasn’t been exactly ideal. Would you say that successful monsoon has happened in all part of India?
A: Yes. If one sees the numbers, till yesterday, northwest India has received 102 percentage so far, in some parts of northeast there is a deficiency of about 50 percentage. Otherwise most parts of the country, in fact around 91 percent of the country, leaving some parts of the northeast, the rainfall has been excess or normal. The activity has been good so far. Q: How would you say this is tying in with sowing patterns for some of the key regions though because in some areas as you said because of excess rainfall there has been a detrimental impact in terms of prices of food items and vegetables. Has the sowing pattern being impacted negatively because of this excess rainfall or is it tying it well with what is expected?
A: Generally the sowing time even if one gets excess rainfall it may not affected. In the later stage, if there is heavy rainfall crops may get impacted. The report says that in some parts sowing has been done, in fact, earlier than expected. Therefore, we expect harvesting will take place earlier than it generally takes place and therefore, since we are expecting relatively weak rainfall activity in the later parts of the monsoon season even that may not affect the crops being likely to harvest early. Q: Particularly for July and August, what is the expectation with respect to the monsoon season. I asked this question because these are the two key months in terms of planting and maturing of crops, so what is the expectation from the months of July and August?
A: As per our prediction, July rainfall is likely to be 101 percent of the long period average and August it is likely to be 96 percent of the long period average. Q: When we spoke with you last, you said that for now there was no signs of an El Nino effect. Are you now getting any indication of some signs of the El Nino effect playing through?
A: The possibility of El Nino can be rejected because there is less probability. In fact, the pacific conditions are becoming more favourable that is going towards the colder side. I think it will be more favourable for a normal monsoon, very neutral conditions are there.