The absence of Rafael Nadal from the French Open this year removes the single most dominating force from the tournament after a long time. Since he first won the title at Roland Garros in 2005—14 times in all—Nadal has held the cynosure every year at this Grand Slam till last year.
Replacing him to an extent this year would be Iga Swiatek, the overwhelming favourite and dominant world number one in women’s singles, whose recent, slightly blemished, record indicates why she would most likely get her third French Open this year.
Swiatek has two titles this year, unlike last year when she came into the French Open on a 28-match, five-tournament winning streak. This year she has stumbled a bit along the way to Roland Garros. She lost in the quarter-final at Rome to Elena Rybakina last week, lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the Madrid Open final before that, to Rybakina in the semi-final at Indian Wells in March and to Barbara Krejcikova in the Dubai final in February. Two of these losses came in straight sets while she retired hurt with a thigh injury in the third set in Rome.
“She (Swiatek) has a great team, and she is playing great. On clay, she hits the ball very hard but still has margin for error and I definitely think she is the favourite,” former top 10 player Tim Henman told Eurosport.
She has won twice in Paris, in 2020 and last year, in which she also got the US Open, making 2022 a breakthrough year of sheer force for her. She got eight singles titles last year that included 37 straight matches won—the joint highest unbeaten streak on the Women’s Tennis Association Tour (WTA) since 1990.
“If she’s 100 percent healthy, then she’s the odds-on favourite. It’s Iga versus the field. If she’s not, then it’s wide open,” multiple-Slam champion Martina Navratilova told the WTA website.
Australian Open winner and world number two Sabalenka and No. 4 Rybakina top the list of people who could challenge Swiatek along the way, already being referred to prematurely as tennis’ next Big Three. With Roger Federer retired, Nadal fading away slowly and Novak Djokovic battling much younger opponents, the original Big Three of (men’s) tennis are now reduced to one and some.
The three women players have the highest winning percentage in 2023, with Sabalenka on 87.9 percent (29 wins to 4 losses), Swiatek at 83.3 percent (25-5) and Rybakina on 77.4 percent (24-7).
Sabalenka, who won her maiden Grand Slam in Australia this year, comes into the French Open as an increasingly improved player on clay. She won the Madid Open earlier this month and lost in the final at Stuttgart—both on clay. Rybakina beat her at the Indian Wells hardcourt final after losing to her in the Australian Open final in January, making it a bit of a musical chairs between the three players.
“It feels like the earth just shifted,” Tennis Channel analyst Chanda Rubin said after the Madrid win. “That performance by Aryna Sabalenka was one for the ages.”
Roland Garros will be one of Sabalenka’s biggest challenges yet because she has never been past the round of 32 here. But beating Swiatek in Madrid, on the Polish player’s favourite surface clay, showed that the Belarussian has evolved into a more complete player.
“I never say that clay is not one of my favourite surfaces. Actually, I really enjoy (the) extra time. I really want to be in the second week of the French Open,” Sabalenka said in Stuttgart.
If 2022 was Swiatek’s year, 2023 is turning out to be the one in which Kazakhstan’s Rybakina makes a strong push into reckoning for every major title. The reigning Wimbledon champion didn’t have great results when she entered the Australian Open this year, but a win over Swiatek in the round of 16 set the tone for her campaign that led to the final. She lost in three sets to Sabalenka then, but Rybakina salvaged some pride by beating Swiatek and Sabalenka at Indian Wells, both in straight sets. Her clay court preparation peaked nicely with a title in Rome that included a win over Swiatek in the quarterfinals.
“Don’t forget, Rybakina grew up on clay,” Navratilova told the WTA. “She knows how to move on it. She’s a smooth mover, she can neutralize the power of the big hitters and just seems so level-headed in every way.”
A few other names in the mix of potential winners here include Jessica Pegula, the world number three, Coco Gauff, and Ons Jabeur, the Wimbledon and US Open finalist of 2021. Swiatek could play Gauff in the quarterfinals in a repeat of last year’s final while Rybakina could face Jabeur in the same round.
With the Big Three in consistent form leading up to the French Open, it considerably diminishes the chances of the others. For the first time perhaps in the post-Serena Williams era, the women’s singles draw has some clear favourites, tilting the balance of the women’s tour to a more concentrated group rather than one that used to be spread wide open.
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