N. Korea's rocket failure to result in bigger confrontation

The failure of North Korea`s long-range rocket launch may have brought relief to the international community and got muted reaction from markets, but political analysts are now warning of a "much bigger confrontation" in the form of a nuclear test next month.

"It`s almost certain that they will go forward with a nuclear test because they have lost face and they have to do something. A nuclear test is the next obvious thing to do," Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNBC on Friday.

North Korea`s `Unha-3` rocket crashed into the sea shortly after launch, South Korean and other officials said, with the rocket exploding mid-air in the initial minutes of flight before falling in 20-odd pieces off South Korea`s west coast.
Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the US think tank Heritage Foundation, believes a nuclear test is a foregone conclusion. "I think North Korea was likely to do a nuclear test anyway. In the past what they`ve done is plan a missile test and a nuclear almost in tandem. They would use any kind of criticism or UN action for the missile launch as justification for the nuclear test," he said.
Pyongyang has said that its intention for the launch of the 91 metric ton rocket was to put a weather satellite into orbit. However, critics believe it was designed to enhance the capacity of North Korea to deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting the United States.
Following news of the failed launch, the White House described Pyongyang`s act as "provocative", adding that it threatened regional security and was in violation of the international law.
Noland and Klingner expect a coalition of countries including the United States and its allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, to lobby the UN Security Council (UNSC) members for a resolution condemning the reclusive state.
The UN Security Council ordered an emergency session on Friday morning to discuss the implications of the launch. The 15-nation UN body is expected to meet behind closed doors at 1400 GMT.

"We should try to close some of those loopholes and existing UN resolutions, and impose additional sanctions not only against North Korea, but the secondary violators, those countries facilitating North Korea`s nuclear and missile programs," Klingner said.

However, they both agree that China, North Korea`s main ally, may come in the way of any severe punishment.
"The problem with the launch having failed is, there will be some sentiment, coming from China, that no real harm was done so let`s not punish them too severely," said Noland.
China tends to act like North Korea`s "defense attorney" at the Security Council, Klingner said, adding that recently, Beijing has tried to be on "both sides of the fence at once".
"It`ll be a question of which China shows up," he said. "Will it be the China of 2009 that was so angry at North Korea for the nuclear missile tests. Or, will it be that China unwilling to take any action when an uranium enrichment facility was unveiled?" Copyright 2011 cnbc.com Also Read: