Chances of above-normal monsoon very high: IMD

With parts of Kerala receiving showers, the Indian Meteorological Department on Tuesday announced the onset of monsoon. Although the monsoon has been delayed by a week, it is not a cause of concern for the economy, BP Yadav, Director at Indian Meteorological Department, told CNBC-TV18.He is positively expecting an above-normal rainfall this year. He said not only IMD but also global weather forecasters predict an above-normal monsoon. There is a more than 90 percent probablity that monsoon will be above normal.He said in the next 2-3 days the IMD expects monsoon to progress in the western India and condition are ripe for a strong monsoon in the second half of this month.Taking hope from IMD's announcement, Ashok Gulati, Chair Professor - Agriculture, ICRIER, said that a good monsoon will ease water shortage and benefit farmers. Gulati said he expects a 10-MT in the country's foodgrain production to 263MT.Below is the verbatim transcript of BP Yadav and Ashok Gulati’s interview with CNBC-TV18's Manisha Gupta.Q: What is your sense really when it comes to the monsoons have final onset. You really cheered the market there. What is your sense on the delay though, are you calling it a lot of delay or it is just a little delay?Yadav: Usually monsoon has a variability of one week. So, if monsoon comes within plus/minus one week of this normal date it is usually termed as near normal. So, I will say that this one week delay is not that worrying, for two reasons. One that, it is only a one week delay. Secondly, although the monsoon type of winds were not there but the rainfall was occurring. The west coast of India, particularly the Kerala state which received first monsoon shower has been receiving rainfall over the last one week or so due to the pre-monsoon activity. So, I don't see much value to some delay of the monsoon over Kerala.Q: What is the sense that you are making initially on the numbers that have come in from IMD?Gulati: All the forecasters are giving very optimistic and very good hope and finally the farmer can heave a sigh of relief in that hope and we are looking towards how much production in agriculture can go up and what will happen to farmers' income and therefore the demands for even non-farm goods by the rural economy.Q: We have just done with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy and the governor also said that it really is much of a monsoon that he would want to watch out for in sense of food production, food prices and inflation going ahead. So, with the kind of numbers that we are working right now what is your sense?Gulati: We would expect that at least the production levels get back to level they were at earlier 2013-14 if they don't cross it, like food grain production, it was hovering at around 263 million tonnes at that time which dropped to 252 - 253 million tonnes. I would expect at least 10 million tonne jump in production level of grains. Similar things in many other crops. So, if it is very good spread and the frequency also is not - it is not that some portions are flooded or other. So, if the spread is also good then I will expect even 2013-14 levels to be taken over by the 2016-17 productions.