Inflation and layoffs across sectors are the two major issues that are worrying Indians and they expect some security from the Union government ahead of the 2024 Budget, according to a survey.
The survey that maps consumer sentiments and expectations from the Union budget 2024 was conducted among 2,500 Indians and more than half of them raised rising inflation as their key concern.
Erratic monsoons, climate change that could impact the agriculture yield is also seen as another important concern area, as it’s a direct contributor to inflation, according to the survey by Kantar, a marketing data and analytics company.
One in every one three Indian are also worried about job security due to the many lay-offs across industries. This has increased considerably over 2023, when 27 percent (one in four) Indians were stressed about layoffs.
The global recession and slowdown is a worry for 48 percent of those surveyed, while conflicts between nations is worrying 45 percent of Indians.
"Indians are worried about global economic slowdown and inflationary factors and there is increased nervousness around job stability versus last year. Most expect the government to play twin roles, a protector by taking stringent measures against inflation and a benefactor by giving a middle-class friendly budget with relief in income taxes," said Deepender Rana, Executive Managing Director- South Asia, Insights Division, Kantar.
Indians expect the Union government to play the role of a protectionist and shield the country from these issues, with 57 percent believing that India will continue to grow faster than most economies in 2024, the survey said.
However, over 50 percent Indians believe that it will at least take another 3 – 4 years before the Indian economy hits the $5-trillion mark.
Also read: Union Budget 2024: Finance Bill to fiscal deficit, key terms you should know
High hopes
Indians are pinning their hopes on the upcoming elections, expecting it to broadly favour the country's economy and its people. However, the global slowdown, economic uncertainty and multiple international cross border conflicts threaten to play spoilsport.
“With 2024 being an election year, we expect the government to be sharply attuned to the sentiment of the masses. Indians continue to be largely positive about the macroeconomic performance of country and believe that the India growth story is quite strong," Rana said.
Almost 75 percent of consumers surveyed expect the financial performance of startups to continue to improve in 2024 in India, which is a young country with an ever-increasing number of start-ups and new-age businesses.
Consumers expect the government to continue to invest in technology. Digital payment methods are getting increasingly common and 80 percent of Indians claim to use UPI/ e-wallets for day-to-day household expenses. The proportion is higher for salaried class at 86 percent; as compared to 72 percent among the self-employed and businessman segment.
Concerns around climate change and its impact on the future is leading Indian consumers to become progressively open towards electric mobility. Among those intending to buy new vehicles post 2024, a sizeable proportion at 61 percent are considering an EV (electric vehicle) purchase.
Also read: Union Budget 2024: Capex momentum, rationalising GST, PLI expansion in CII's wishlist
However, consumers also expect the government to incentivise this shift towards EVs. More than 40 percent of those surveyed are seeking immediate monetary benefits during the purchase stage itself, ranging from upfront discounts, reduced road tax and reduced vehicle registration fee.
In the wake of economic growth expectations and evolving consumer sentiments, 58 percent consumers predict an increase in their discretionary spending.
With the markets fluctuating considerably over the last one month, only one in five Indians believe that the Sensex will cross 80,000 by year end, with a third expecting it to stay in the range of 76000-80000.
Budget wishlist
Some other highlights of the survey include 70 percent of urban Indians saying they were happy with the 2023 budget and claimed that it positively impacted their household.
Also read: Budget 2024: Anticipating growth in India's infrastructure landscape
Despite not expecting too much from an interim (pre-election) budget, consumers do hope for policy change announcements with respect to income tax brackets to help supplement their disposable income.
Increasing basic income tax exemption limit (from current Rs 3 lakh is the most common expectation; along with increasing the standard deduction from Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lakh.
Also read: Budget 2024: What rollover data suggests for pre–budget positioning, and key tips for traders
Increasing the threshold limit of highest tax slab from current Rs 15 lakh or decreasing the highest tax rate of 30 percent applicable on income over Rs 15 lakh is notably higher among the businessmen/ self-employed segments.
There is also an expectation that the government will increase the limit for deductions under Section 80 for medical insurance premium.
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