Countries are planning to produce around 110 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report. This comes despite 151 countries having pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and the latest forecasts that suggest global coal, oil and gas demand will peak this decade, even without new policies.
The Production Gap Report 2023 tracks the discrepancy between governments' planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius. The report says the near-term increase in coal production is led by India, followed by the Russian Federation, both planning significant increases in coal production through 2030.
India aims for self-reliance and considers the coal industry of paramount importance for income and employment generation. Around one-fifth of India's coal demand is met through imports, which exposes the country to price volatility in the international market and loss of foreign exchange reserves. The world has burned enough fossil fuels to raise the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 275 parts per million (ppm) before the industrial revolution to about 420 ppm today. This increase leads to more heat being trapped, leading to climate change.
In the report, UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres said, "We cannot address the climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence. COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is coming to an end that its demise is inevitable. We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels and boost energy efficiency while ensuring a just, equitable transition." July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded and most likely the hottest in the past 1,20,000 years, according to scientists.
Across the globe, deadly heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods are costing lives and livelihoods. Global carbon dioxide emissions almost 90 per cent of which come from fossil fuels rose to record highs in 20212022. "Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity's future into question," said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
"Powering economies with clean and efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and bring down emissions at the same time. Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet," she added. The report also notes that government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030 and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050.
It further points out that the 20 major fossil fuel-producing countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE, the UK and the US, continue to provide significant policy and financial support for fossil fuel production. This conflicts with government commitments under the Paris Agreement and clashes with expectations that global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak within this decade, even without new policies.
While major producer countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production, none have committed to reducing coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the report. Given the risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage, and carbon dioxide removal, the report suggests that countries should aim for a near-total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum.
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