With an eye on the electoral challenges ahead of the 2022 assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to expand the social pyramid that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) banks upon for success. July 7 witnessed one of the largest and boldest expansions of a Union Council of Ministers in recent times.
On July 7 evening, 43 ministers were sworn in. Of these, 36 are new to the council of ministers; seven are ministers of state who have been promoted. Seven among the 43 are women, and all new to the council. There are 27 ministers from 19 other backward class (OBC) communities spread across 15 states.
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In all, there are eight ministers from the Scheduled Tribes (ST) from seven communities and eight states, and there are 12 ministers from the Scheduled Castes (SC) from 12 communities and eight states.
Modi's emphasis on OBCs and SCs/STs — who together total 47 of the 77-strong council of ministers — shows that the BJP is preparing for the political challenges in many states. Since 1990, this has been the third-largest council of ministers.
Soon after the expansion, Modi's aides emphasised that the Prime Minister had gone for a better educational background while picking his team. Now there are 13 lawyers, six doctors, five engineers, seven former civil servants, three MBAs, and seven with Doctorates among the 77 ministers.
Governance And Electoral Dynamics
As performance was one of his benchmarks for the induction of new faces and exclusion of others, the exercise did not veil signs of the Prime Minister’s exasperation with the quality of work delivered by his team thus far, and his objectives ahead.
At the same time, Modi did not lose his appetite for new experiments in governance — by creating new ministries, bringing in relatively junior hands to handle sensitive and demanding ministries.
The changes appear to have been brought in also realising the damage the COVID-19 second wave has caused to the government’s image, the stress it has put on India’s economy, and that it shattered hopes across sections of society.
In all these efforts, Modi has not lost sight of the political compulsions that govern electoral dynamics — be it Maharashtra where the BJP is still at a loss over the Shiv Sena breaking alliance and forming a government with the Congress and the NCP, or in Uttar Pradesh where the 2022 state polls will set the momentum for the 2024 general elections.
Neither has West Bengal been forgotten, where the BJP’s performance in the assembly polls was a big disappointment. Modi also did not forget Gujarat where the BJP could face a challenge in the 2022 assembly polls.
A Clear Message
By removing 12 ministers, including prominent faces like Ravi Shankar Prasad, Prakash Javadekar, Ramesh Pokhriyal, DV Sadananda Gowda, Modi did not mince his words in conveying that there is no place for underperformance in his Cabinet. Whether Harsh Vardhan paid a heavy price or was a scapegoat for the COVID-19 vaccination muddle could be debated in political circles.
What is important is that the Prime Minister is no more willing to absorb the inefficiency and confusion when it comes formulating and executing policies in key areas such as COVID-19 management, IT technology or reforms in the Railways.
That is why it is significant that the task before Mansukh Mandaviya, Vardhan's successor, includes building up the health infrastructure and also expediting policies as chemicals and fertiliser minister, which will help the pharma industry boost production and supply of important drugs.
Merging And Rewarding
Modi has also clubbed together some ministries to increase synergy and optimum use of resources.
Ashwini Vaishnaw, a former aide to late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will be the railway minister with additional charge of information and technology and communications.
Home Minister Amit Shah will have additional charge of the new Ministry of Cooperation. This may mark the beginning of Shah's foray into the rural economy domain with emphasis on nurturing co-operatives, including farmer producer organisations (FPO). These FPOs have been envisaged to give a better deal to farmers under the contentious farm laws, which are still in a limbo.
The induction of Jyotiraditya Scindia was long overdue, and he has been given the civil aviation portfolio, which was once held by his late father Madhavrao Scindia.
Former Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has been inducted into the Union Cabinet and has been made in-charge of ports and shipping. It is believed that Sonowal has been rewarded for giving up his claim for the Chief Minister’s post in favour of Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Accommodating Allies
Former Maharashtra Chief Minister Narayan Rane has been made Cabinet Minister for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises. His induction does not augur well for those who still believe that the BJP and the Shiv Sena can come together in Maharashtra. In 2005, Rane quit the Shiv Sena protesting Uddhav Thackeray’s elevation at the cost of senior leaders. In 2019 he joined the BJP after a short stint in the Congress.
Rijiju, the first Cabinet minister from Arunachal Pradesh, has a tall order. Surprisingly, Modi has entrusted him with law and justice after Prasad’s resignation. The government faces several legal challenges as key policy pronouncements are under the scrutiny of the Supreme Court.
Janata Dal (United)’s RCP Singh will be the new steel minister, and Lok Janshakti Party's Pashupati Paras will occupy his brother late Ram Vilas Paswan’s old portfolio of food and consumer affairs. The re-entry of JD(U) into the government marks a course correction for the image of the National Democratic Alliance, which has been bereft of allies after the departure of the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal.
Bhupendra Yadav, a close aide of Shah and BJP's trouble shooter, will be the new environment and labour minister. A lawyer by training, Yadav replaces Javadekar in the environment ministry and Gangwar in the labour ministry. Both are crucial ministries, considering Modi's goals in tackling climate change and ushering in more labour reforms.
The Union Cabinet reshuffle shows that when it comes to reforms and development Modi wants to continue with the pedal to the metal; and when it comes to elections, he wants to ensure that the BJP and its allies in the NDA are in a favourable position.
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