Pakistan’s leadership under pressure as TTP ends ceasefire, Imran Khan calls for early elections

The fast-paced political drama is also playing out at a time when the new Pakistani army chief, General Asim Munir, took charge from his predecessor, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, on November 29.

Hamid was one of the six senior generals whose names were sent to the government for the army chief’s post.

Imran Khan’s equation with Asim Munir

Incidentally, when Munir was chief of the Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s spy network, in 2018, he could serve only for eight months-- one of the shortest stints in the post—as he was replaced by Imran Khan, the then prime minister, who brought in his trusted general Hamid in his place.

Imran Khan had tried to influence the choice of the new army chief, but the Sharif government ignored him while choosing Munir as Bajwa’s replacement.

Apart from his competence as a military officer, Munir’s past encounters with Imran Khan may have played a role in his selection for the army chief’s position-- widely believed to be the most powerful post in Pakistan.

The TTP on Monday called off the ceasefire with the government and asked its militants to stage attacks across the country.

It said in a statement that “as military operations are going on against mujahideen in different areas, it is imperative for the militants to carry out attacks wherever they can in the country.”

The Afghan factor

The Pakistani Taliban has close ties with the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan.

In the past, the Pakistani government’s attempts to urge the Kabul regime to act against the TTP, which was launching attacks against Pakistan from bases in Afghanistan, fell on deaf ears.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan told the Pakistani officials categorically that it will not take any action against their brothers in the TTP.

The only thing it was willing to do for Pakistan was to facilitate talks with the Pakistani Taliban.

Observers say that effective military action had pushed back the Pakistani Taliban from the Swat Valley and other territories in Pakistan in the past and forced it to take shelter in Afghanistan.

But in recent months, the TTP has returned and started making inroads in Pakistan, terrorising and killing people in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area.

Some analysts also pointed out that the Taliban and the Pakistani government have had strained relations in recent months as Islamabad failed to bring any economic relief or diplomatic recognition to the Kabul regime.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s concerns over the presence of international terrorist organisations in Afghanistan in his speech at the UN General Assembly in New York in September had frustrated the Taliban leadership.

The Taliban believed that the international community was not appreciative of its effort to isolate the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISK) in Afghanistan and blamed Pakistan for failing to get sanctions lifted on Kabul and get the regime international recognition.

Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Abbas Stanekzai was quoted by Pakistani media as saying that the Taliban has proof of Pakistan’s “manipulative role in Afghanistan.”

“If we rise against this, no one will be able to stop us,” he had threatened the Islamabad government.

Attempt to mend relations

However, recently the Pakistani government sent its Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, to Kabul to smoothen ruffled Afghan feathers.

Apart from putting relations back on track, the minister was also expected to discuss Kabul’s help in dealing with the TTP.

But analysts are still trying to understand the extent to which developments in Pakistan in the wake of the new army chief’s selection have had on Afghanistan and the TTP’s decision to break the nebulous ceasefire that was stitched up by Hamid.

However, most find the recent political developments and the security threat to be a serious challenge for the Pakistani leadership and the new army chief.

It is not clear yet if Imran Khan will be able to carry through his threat of withdrawing from participating in the political system.

His party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (PTI), is in power in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan provinces.

Call for early elections

By withdrawing his party legislators, Imran Khan is trying to create a situation in the country where there is enough pressure on the Sharif government to call elections earlier; the elections are due in September 2023.

Imran Khan believes that his party, which currently enjoys a lot of support and popularity in Pakistan, especially as people are frustrated with the government for accelerating inflation in food and energy prices, will sweep the elections if they are held early.

But so far, the Sharif government has been unwilling to do so, as early elections could totally marginalise his party and coalition partners.

His attempt is to allow the economy to improve a little so that he can announce a series of fresh subsidies and concessions for people some months before the election to change the mood in his favour.

However, as the tussle between the two sides intensifies and the threat of the Pakistani Taliban looms large, the combination of political instability, a declining economy and rising security threats within the country, can pose a big challenge for both the civilian and military leadership.