Somya Lohia Moneycontrol News
As the poll battle reaches its pinnacle in Telangana and all political parties are fighting hard to win the forthcoming state assembly elections, Muslims are expected to play a crucial role in deciding the outcome.
Muslims constitute around 12.7 percent of the state's population, according to 2011 Census data. They are scattered in almost all districts of Telangana, but are concentrated in Adilabad, Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, Nalgonda, Ranga Reddy, Hyderabad, Medak and Karimnagar districts.
In the last assembly elections held in 2014, the result showed that majority of Muslim voters backed TRS candidates, especially in North Telangana.
This contributed in the massive win for the ‘pink’ party and its emergence as the largest one among all contesting parties.
Analysts say one of the major reasons behind early dissolution of state assembly, that paved way for early elections, was TRS supremo KCR fearing possible simultaneous general and assembly polls. This would bring national agenda on the centrestage and the election will be reduced to a fight between pro-BJP and anti-BJP forces.
“The ruling party feared that if there were any anti-Modi sentiments (or anti-incumbency against Centre) prevailing in the country at the time of Lok Sabha polls, it would impact voters in assembly polls too. This would largely affect Muslim votes, which then could go into the Congress’ kitty,” said Professor K Nageshwar, noted political analyst.
The elections were originally scheduled to be held in the summer of 2019, along with the crucial Lok Sabha polls.
Now, the Election Commission of India has scheduled the polling on December 7.
In 2014, Congress and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) had parted ways. The AIMIM then moved closer to TRS and both gained from it.
The AIMIM has a stronghold in the seven constituencies of Hyderabad region it won in 2014. However, the region houses only 40 percent of the Muslim population, while the rest of it is scattered across the state.
“The AIMIM has complete hold on the seven ruling seats, but nothing can be said for the other constituencies,” said Nageshwar.
“The voters, belonging to any region or any community, will vote as per their conscience. No caste or community will vote for a particular party in block. However, TRS would want Muslims to vote for AIMIM over Congress,” Nageshwar added.
It has been seen that the basic strategy of AIMIM is having a tacit understanding with the ruling party, he added.
There was also an impression that the TRS and the BJP had a secret pact. However, both parties have been attacking each other openly. A reason behind it could be to stop the Muslim community from voting against the 'pink' party, as the 'saffron' party is often believed to have a Hindutva agenda.
“The slamming and attacking by both parties (BJP and TRS) is common before the polls and the TRS can support the BJP in future, if required. In Telangana, Congress is the opponent of TRS, not BJP. So, it can go in alliance with the BJP, depending on the situation,” Nageshwar said.
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