Prime Minister Narendra Modi's key promise when he was first voted to power in 2014 was about jobs. As he makes a bid for a third term in the 2024 general election, jobs continue to be the focal point for Indian voters. This is one of the findings of a News18 mega opinion poll conducted across 21 states between February 12 and March 1.
The survey, which polled 1.19 lakh people, saw 56 percent of respondents list jobs as one of the three most important factors when it comes to determining which party they would vote for in the general election.
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At 47 percent, inflation was the second-most cited factor, with law and order close on its heels at 46 percent.
While India is the world's fastest growing large economy and is expected to clock a GDP growth rate of 7.6 percent in 2023-24, questions have been raised in some quarters about whether the growth has been uniform and if enough jobs are being created. Critics often cite the huge number of applicants for a limited number of government posts as a sign of insufficient number of jobs being generated. But the government's latest Periodic Labour Force Survey showed the all-India unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in 2023 from 5.7 percent the previous year.
Inflation, too, is cooling after multiple shocks in the form of the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, with headline retail inflation averaging 5.7 percent in 2023, down from 6.7 percent in 2022. However, inflation has been above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for nearly four and a half years now.
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As is to be expected, jobs constitute the biggest issue for the younger cohort, with 60 percent of those in the 18-25 age bracket picking it as one of their three key voting determinants.
Interestingly, religion-wise, law and order was the most popular pick among Sunni Muslims (51 percent), Sikhs (50 percent) and Buddhists (45 percent).
Jobs trump religion
Staying with religion, it was cited as a factor in deciding who to vote for by only 26 percent of the respondents, with 35 percent of Sikhs putting it in their top-three determinants.
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In what may be a surprise to policymakers, infrastructure and development was a factor for only 25 percent of those polled, ranking sixth. Corruption came in at fourth with 31 percent. This is in contrast with the run-up to the 2014 elections, when the India Against Corruption movement had taken centre-stage and graft emerged as the biggest issue for voters.
The survey covered 21 major states accounting for 95 percent of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. All the 518 Lok Sabha constituencies in these 21 states were covered. In each constituency, 210 interviews were conducted of eligible voters.
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