Iranian football team’s silent song of protest scores one for the sisters, for now

But despite the harsh crackdown by Teheran, the protestors have not been deterred.

Amini’s death has seen one of the largest and most sustained protests in the country since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979.

The protestors have adopted the Kurdish slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” as their rallying cry and have taken to the streets to demand political freedom, defying internet blackouts, mass arrests, and live-fire attacks by security forces.

More than 400 protestors have been killed and scores injured since Amini’s death, and another 15,000 demonstrators have been taken into custody.

Many have also been tried in court and sentenced to death for waging war against God — as the Iranian government has framed the protests.

The protests had begun with calls to abolish the religious police. But now they have turned into full-throated attacks on the clerical establishment and the 83-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In recent years, Iran has been facing a series of challenges, like widening frustration over social restrictions, outrage over economic collapse and mismanagement, and rising anger and frustration against the Islamic regime.

The country-wide women’s protest has now built up into a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic.

But America’s vocal support for the protestors and imposition of fresh sanctions against Iran has allowed the Islamic regime to describe the ongoing protests as being engineered by the US and Israel to destabilise the Islamic Republic.

Many Iranians who were unhappy with the regime for being indifferent to public concerns are now confused. The evidence of foreign support for the movement has raised doubts in their minds as to whether this was yet another attempt by America and its allies to weaken the Islamic Republic.

This has allowed Teheran to unleash all the coercive forces at its command — the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Basij paramilitary, as well as activate its network of mosques and socio-cultural institutions — in the face of the threat posed to it.

Iran has been able to develop close and strong ties with China and Russia in recent years, as all the three countries have strained relations with the US.

The war in Ukraine, where the West has attempted to punish Russia, and the rising tension in the Indo-Pacific between US and China, have brought the three countries even closer.

Iran counts on support from them in the event any attempt is made by the US or other forces to use the women’s protest to topple the Islamic regime.

India has been watching the developments closely but has not reacted officially.

There has been a lot of support for the anti-hijab movement in Iran on social media. The movement coincided with pro-hijab protests in India among sections of women in Karnataka and elsewhere.

Some Indian celebrities were accused of double standards for speaking up in support of the Iranian women, while remaining silent about a similar issue confronting women in their own country.

India’s decision not to comment on the developments in Iran is part of the government’s stated policy of refraining from making remarks about the internal affairs of other countries.

Iran had criticised the comments made by a BJP functionary on the Prophet. But it had not said anything on the anti-hijab controversy in Karnataka.

India and Iran are strategic partners. Iran is not only a major supplier of fuel to India, it is also key for India’s access to Afghanistan through the Chabahar port. Moreover, both countries have worked closely in facing challenges in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region.

Interestingly, the women’s protests in Iran have come at a time when a process has been set in motion in the Islamic Republic establishment to look for a successor to the 83-year-old supremo, who has been keeping indifferent health.

Observers feel the competition to succeed him will be intense, and whatever be the outcome, the way the transition unfolds will have far-reaching consequences for Iran’s relationship with its Arab neighbours and western adversaries.

In recent years, Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi has often been seen as a leading contender to replace Khamenei.

Though his religious credentials and past political positions have clearly made him part of the inner circle of powerful clerics, he has not been able to deliver any policy victories, say observers.

Despite months of negotiations, the Iran nuclear deal has not reached any positive conclusion to end the crippling US sanctions on the country.

The protests have exposed the regime’s failure in dealing with the frustration and anger of the people over their economic and social woes.

How Raisi handles the women’s protest and the rising frustration of the young generation of Iranians who are demanding a better life, could play a crucial role in determining his success in the competition for the supreme leadership.

On the other hand, despite its current popularity and support, the women’s protest may fizzle out in the absence of a unifying leader and their inability to get wider community support.

But regardless of how it ends, the Islamic republic will have to initiate reforms and make itself relevant to its 83 million people, half of whom were born after the Islamic Revolution of 1979.