The arrest of former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan and the subsequent violence on May 9, 2023, between his supporters and security forces that spread to different parts of the country has the potential of plunging Pakistan into a long bout of destruction and political instability.
Such a situation could also worsen the country’s image further, especially when it is negotiating a financial bailout package of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Violence erupted on Tuesday in several cities of Pakistan, including Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi and Quetta, following Khan’s arrest, who is also the chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Khan was arrested by Pakistani Rangers from the Islamabad High Court when he had to make “an appearance” before a judge in connection with a land scam, known as the Qadir Trust corruption case.
Provincial assembly elections will be delayed
HKhan’s arrest and related developments are likely to push back the provincial assembly elections in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) that were due on May 14.
The fate of the provincial assembly elections was already in doubt as the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had cited its inability to hold free and fair polls for want of adequate security personnel.
Now, with his arrest and the ongoing violence in the country, there is very little chance of them being held as per schedule.
The ECP had suggested that assembly and parliamentary elections should be held in October when the ongoing operations at the Sindh-Punjab border against the Taliban Pakistan terrorists will be over and an adequate number of security personnel are available.
Corruption cases against Khan
There are a number of corruption cases against Khan. If his involvement is established by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), which is investigating the cases, he could be disqualified from future elections and from holding any post within his party.
His predecessor and Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leader Nawaz Sharif had faced the same fate when charges of corruption by the NAB had barred him from contesting elections and holding political posts.
All attempts to arrest Khan earlier were thwarted by his supporters and they fought violently with the security forces and prevented them from acting against him.
The Pakistan army had, so far, distanced itself from the operations against the former prime minister and had left it to the Pakistani police.
Friction with the army
Khan’s repeated allegations against the Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) -- the all-powerful spy network of the country and a wing of the Pakistani army – that it wants to assassinate him seems to have forced the army to act against him.
A few days back, the Inter-Service Press Relations (ISPR) had categorically denied the charges made by the former prime minister and cautioned him not to sully the image of the Pakistani army.
Pakistani political commentator Zahid Hussain had recently observed in his column that it is now Khan’s turn to face persecution the same way the previous opposition leaders faced during his tenure.
Khan had won parliamentary elections in 2018 with the backing of the army and promised to fight corruption to build a “new Pakistan” where all sections will prosper.
However, his growing differences with the Pakistan army’s top echelons and attempts to take key decisions, ignoring the top generals’ concerns and interest led to his ouster in April 2022, after he lost a confidence vote in parliament.
Khan has since directed his ire and frustration on the army and taken every opportunity in the past months to criticise the country’s military establishment.
Economic crisis
Khan’s stint as the country’s prime minister also witnessed the worst economic crisis in Pakistan.
As his government began negotiations with the IMF for a $1.1 billion bailout package, the international lending body put stringent conditions on Pakistan that forced the government to remove subsidies on gas and energy, leading to a sharp rise in fuel prices and it also impacted the cost of food and other essential items.
The Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition government, which replaced him, has been facing the brunt of the people’s anger and frustration because of the adverse economic situation.
Khan most popular political figure
Most observers acknowledge that Khan is currently the most popular political figure in Pakistan.
He has become more popular due to his relentless attack against the government for its failure to check rising food and fuel prices.
The PTI leader has also been equally critical of the army for interfering in political affairs and preventing popular leaders elected by the people’s mandate from functioning independently.
Khan has convinced his supporters that he was removed from power by the army and his political opponents because he wanted to improve the condition of the poor.
The Sharif government and its coalition partners are aware that if parliamentary elections are held now, they will lose because people’s frustration over the economic crisis will be directed against them.
On the other hand, if general elections are held in October, it might give the ruling coalition time to improve the economy and their chances.
However, if elections in the Punjab and KPK Assemblies are held earlier, it might give Khan’s PTI an emphatic victory and allow the party to ride on the wave of its electoral success in the parliamentary election in October.
The best scenario for the ruling coalition of Sharif could, therefore, be to get Khan out of the race by disqualifying him.
This could prove to be counter-productive and turn the former prime minister into a more popular figure.
A lot will depend on an early release of Khan and his effective handling of the current crisis and efforts to stabilise Pakistan.
But will the government in Islamabad manage to do this soon or not will remain a big question.
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