It does not come as a surprise to anyone that opinion polls are predicting a ‘wave’ in favour of the BJP in next month’s Lok Sabha elections. However, it is believed that the pre-poll alliances and tie-ups and the candidates it selects will hold the key. Many feel that the BJP is running into alliances trouble – with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra being unhappy over BJP’s ‘flirting’ with MNS; in Haryana, though the BJP finally allied with Kuldeep Bishnoi, it is believed Bishnoi was irked with the party’s overtures to Om Prakash Chautala. Apart from that, there have been speculations over seat allocations. The saffron party’s first list of 97 candidates saw important names such as Narendra Modi, LK Advani, Rajnath Singh and Murli Manohar Joshi missing.
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Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-in-Chief, CNN-IBN however believes there will always be bickering over seats and also that the alliances trouble perhaps is overdone. But as far as Maharashtra goes, the fact that the MNS will finally contest 8-10 seats with relatively strong candidates is not great news for the BJP-Shiv-Sena alliance, especially the Shiv Sena.
But leaving that aside, a NDTV poll even suggests that the BJP is doing well even in Karnataka, he says. Hence, clearly the broad picture indicates that the momentum is still with the BJP, infact the allies are now trying to gravitate towards the BJP, says Sardesai. So much so, it is believed even the TRS (Telangana Rashtriya Samiti) wouldn’t mind striking a deal with the BJP. Even in Haryana, BJP chose to form an alliance with Bishnoi.
The only problem area for the BJP is Uttar Pradesh. Sardesai does not feel that Narendra Modi alone can pull UP. But there is a sense that unless the BJP gets Modi to contest from UP, the party will not be able to enthuse the workers enough, particularly in Eastern UP. If BJP manages to get 40-45 seats from UP, BJP will be in a position to form the next government, he adds.
Sanjay Pugalia, Managing Editor, CNBC Awaaz too agrees with Sardesai. But Pugalia had not expected the Telugu Desam to talk about a tie-up before elections. He says even if they don’t go in for an alliance, it will go in for some kind of a seat adjustment. But Rajdeep expects a pre-poll alliance by next Tuesday with TDP. Pugalia believes BJP has gone all guns blazing in forming pre-polls alliances. Even post polls, Chautala or Babulal Marandi from Jharkhand can come into a possible NDA tent.
For Vinay Tewari, Managing Editor, CNN-IBN Bihar and UP will hold the key for BJP. He says when the first list came out and people were talking about missing names, focus was on missing names from UP. However, the BJP came out with a list of people who will be contesting the polls from Bihar. While th UP list has been held back, there has been quiet a bit of dissent in Bihar post the list was made public.
Shereen Bhan, Managing Editor, CNBC-TV18 too believes that the squabbles in BJP being are being overdone. She too says that people or parties will want to back the winning horse – in this case the BJP. But a crucial question is which way Jayalalitha from Tamil Nadu swing. Another cause of concern that she points out is the infighting in BJP. However, Sardesai believes it will suit Jayalalitha if it is a four-way contest, which is perhaps what will happen by the looks of it. According to him, the fear is with Mamata Banerjee, which is why BJP needs to cross the 220 mark as he does not see her openly siding with Narendra Modi.
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